Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
610 FXXX10 KWNP 250031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024 is 2.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 25-Jun 27 2024 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.67 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 0.67 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.00 1.33 18-21UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 S1 or greater 10% 5% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 25 Jun due to recent activity from the western limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 24 2024 0452 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity will remain likely through 27 June along with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event.