Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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203 FXUS65 KTFX 251622 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1022 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and dry weather, with periods of breezy to gusty winds is forecast for today. Tomorrow will see a return to daily afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. A passing system favors widespread rainfall and some cooler temperatures for the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Ridging aloft will bring dry conditions while northerly breezes associated with a weak cold front maintain near average temperatures. Aside from some cloud builds over the southwest later this afternoon and evening, mostly clear skies are expected for the remainder of the day. Unsettled conditions and shower and thunderstorm chances return on Wednesday in advance of an approaching Pacific trough. - RCG && .AVIATION... 25/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions are forecast to continue through at least 26/12Z across North Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS) Montana. A moderate and dry westerly flow aloft continues mostly clear skies across the area with some mountain wave turbulence. As high pressure aloft builds into the Pacific Northwest after 15Z, the winds aloft and turbulence decrease across the area. A more northwesterly flow aloft moves a weak disturbance and associated weak Canadian cold front southeast over the plains. The main impact from this is an overall shift to more northerly winds. - Coulston/Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ Note: The forecast area for The National Weather Service Great Falls Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and southwest, Montana. Today...Under the influence of an upper level ridge, mild and dry conditions are forecast. Periods of breezy to gusty winds are forecast, with gusts, generally, remaining below 25 mph. Tomorrow through Friday...The passing upper level ridge is, quickly, followed by a low amplitude upper level trof. Increasing instability favors the daily development of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Some of these storms could become severe producing strong erratic gusty winds, large hail and brief heavy downpours. The best chance for severe thunderstorm activity is, Thursday afternoon and evening, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a portion of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather. That area includes Meagher, Judith Basin, Fergus and Blaine Counties, where there is a 5% chance that Thursday`s storms may produce severe winds of 58 mph, or more, and/or large hail of an inch, or more, within a 25 mile radius of any given point. As the afore mentioned trof passes, widespread rainfall is forecast. Thursday, there is a 25% to 50% chance for much of our region to receive 0.25" of moisture, with a 15% to 30% chance for much of our region to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation. Locally, higher amounts are forecast, at times, in association with thunderstorms. Rainfall continues to impact north central and central Montana through Friday afternoon, until the weather producing trof exits the region. By Friday, north central and central Montana experience below normal temperatures, with low elevation forecast highs ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Southwest Montana continues to trend warmer, with low elevation highs ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday...Subsidence and drying, in association with the next upper level ridge, favors a mild summer day. Sunday through next Tuesday...The next upper level trof dominates, favoring a gentle cooling trend with a return of widespread precipitation. - Fogleman && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 78 49 88 57 / 0 0 10 30 CTB 74 46 83 54 / 0 0 10 20 HLN 87 55 90 61 / 0 0 20 40 BZN 86 51 86 56 / 0 0 30 30 WYS 81 45 78 49 / 10 10 30 30 DLN 86 50 83 53 / 0 0 30 20 HVR 78 50 86 58 / 0 0 0 30 LWT 74 48 82 55 / 0 0 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls