028
FXUS65 KTFX 221936
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
136 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Fairly benign conditions will be in place across the Northern
Rockies through mid week. Temperatures will remain above average
through at least Thursday, with Wednesday looking the warmest. Winds
will be breezy at times, though do not look to be overly
impactful.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday... A shortwave approaching within westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a noon-zero chance for a shower
across Central and North-central Montana tonight into early tomorrow,
otherwise the only impacts felt from this system will be a breezy
rest of the day and increased cloud cover heading into tonight.
Monday through Wednesday an upper level ridge will build in from
the west, allowing temperatures to climb even further above
average. Wednesday looks like the warmest day (Greater than 50%
chance for highs at or above 85 F across much of the plains)
before the ridge is broken down heading into Thursday.

As the ridge breaks down, winds look to become increasingly gusty
Thursday and Friday. The chance for a 50 mph gust at Cut Bank is
between 30 and 40% Thursday and Friday, with chances increasing
closer to the Rocky Mountain Front.

Overall the week looks dry, with just a slight chance for rain along
the Rocky Mountain Front at times late-week.

Saturday and Sunday... Ensemble guidance gives little confidence on
how the pattern will evolve next weekend. There is confidence in
troughing off the Pacific coast of Canada, but confidence quickly
decreases as to how quickly this troughing moves on shore as well
as its north/south positioning. Scenarios range from warmer and
drier condtions persisting to a cooler and wet latter half of the
weekend. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 2218/2318 TAF period;
however, mid- and upper level cloudiness will continue to increase
over the Central and North Central Montana through 00z Monday and
across Southwest Montana between 00-06z Monday. While an isolated
shower or two are possible between 03-12z Monday across the Northern
Rockies, little to no precipitation is expected to reach the
surface given dry air in the low levels. Breezy and gusty west to
northwest winds at the KCTB and KGTF terminals, with gusts of 25-
35kts this afternoon, will gradually decrease beyond 00z Monday.
Mountain wave turbulence and instances of low level wind shear will
be possible over the next 12-18 hours. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  74  48  83 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  47  71  49  82 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  52  73  49  82 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  72  43  79 /  10  10   0   0
WYS  32  65  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  41  69  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  49  73  48  81 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  47  67  46  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls