Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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410 FXUS65 KTFX 262330 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 530 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Breezy conditions and mild temperatures will continue through the rest of today with warmer conditions expected over the weekend. The next cool down is expected later in the weekend into early next week with a slight chance for showers and more breezy to windy conditions for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -Breezy conditions will continue through the rest of the day across north-central and central Montana. -Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the weekend before a cold front arrives early next week. -Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of next week. Breezy conditions will continue across north-central and central Montana through the rest of today with winds tapering off after sunset. While isolated stronger gusts are still possible along the Rocky Mountain Front, overall, the threat for high wind has diminished enough to cancel the high wind warning. Weak ridging builds over the intermountain west through much of the weekend, keeping temperatures above normal with generally dry conditions across the region. Sunday into Monday, a trough moves across northern Montana and southern AB/SK bringing cooler temperatures and a less than 30% chance for showers for portions of the Rocky Mountain Front and the Hi-Line. Behind the trough, ensembles generally favor quasi-zonal flow with west to southwesterly flow aloft. A couple shortwave disturbances are expected early next week although there are still differences among ensemble members in regards to the timing. Overall, this looks to result in temperatures oscillating from near average to above average and back again, along with periods of breezy conditions. Beyond that, CPC guidance continues to favor chances for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through at least the first week in October. -thor && .AVIATION... 27/00Z TAF Period Breezy west to northwest winds will decrease over the next few hours. VFR conditions prevail as there is little to no cloud cover expected during the TAF period. Winds remain light overnight, but west/southwest winds will pick up again to up to 25-35kts Friday afternoon. Stronger winds aloft will continue to bring periods of mountain wave turbulence and a slight chance for speed shear concerns when approaching valley terminals. -Wilson Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 81 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 46 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 48 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 43 81 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 33 73 33 77 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 43 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 45 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls