105
FXUS63 KTOP 270504
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up and down pattern continues for the next week, with alternating
1-2 day stretches of hotter/cooler temperatures.

- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with this
  active pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Last night`s cold front has pushed south into Oklahoma, leaving
behind a cooler and somewhat drier air mass in place for today.
We`ll continue to see some slight dry air advection through tonight,
as the East Coast upper trough deepens. By tomorrow, southeasterly
winds will return as surface high pressure shifts farther east.
Isentropic ascent north of the old frontal boundary will result in
showers and weak thunderstorms developing across central Kansas
towards sunrise. These will gradually shift east throughout the day.
The clouds and showers will keep high temperatures in the 80s,
potentially even the 70s in western areas if showers can move in by
late morning and linger through the afternoon.

Late Thursday night as the next upper trough shifts across the
Rockies and onto the Plains, a better signal exists for
thunderstorms to develop across western Kansas and move east into
the area. Instability across north-central KS is just high enough
with this round (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) that a few strong to
severe storms will be possible. Potential decreases farther east as
instability tapers off. Once the morning convection tapers off,
another hot and humid day is on tap for Friday. Heat indices are
likely (70%) to reach the 100-107 degree range, though the amount of
lingering cloud cover does lead to some uncertainty. By evening, the
next cold front will begin to move into northern Kansas. There is
still some uncertainty as to exact position of the front and
associated surface low, which results in questions with storm
coverage and timing. Regardless, convergence along the front will
result in thunderstorm potential increasing during the evening
hours. Stronger mid-level flow and more southeasterly winds will
result in better effective wind shear than our last few thunderstorm
events, so some severe thunderstorms will certainly be possible
given plenty of moisture and instability. The exact potential and
ceiling will be dependent on the aforementioned surface pattern
as well as mesoscale factors that won`t be resolved until
Friday.

Beyond Friday, we`ll see another couple days of cooler weather for
Saturday and Sunday behind the cold front. Expecting highs in the
80s, with perhaps even some local 70s on Sunday as strong high
pressure moves in from the north. Low PoPs linger south of I-70,
though the better chances stay even farther south towards the
stalling boundary across Oklahoma. By early next week, another trend
towards hot and humid conditions is expected as ridging strengthens
over the Southern Plains and southerly near-surface flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The latest models are slow to return the deeper moisture into
northeast KS and the RAP and NAM actually show surface dewpoints
mixing out in the afternoon. So instability looks to be limited
through the afternoon for convection. A weak shortwave thursday
night is forecast to bring higher probabilities for SHRA and TS,
mainly towards the end of the forecast period and beyond. Think
VFR conditions will prevail with just some mid and high clouds
increasing from the west.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters