366
FXUS63 KTOP 301125
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms move into the area today and linger into
Friday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon.

- A summer-like weather pattern begins to set up this weekend
  and next week with warm temperatures and occasional
  thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a weakening
complex of storms across the high plains of Nebraska, Kansas,
Oklahoma and Texas. Shortwave energy has helped to maintain some
strong updrafts, but as they continue to move east this morning,
these will continue to weaken as they move into a less favorable
environment. Over the past several hours, satellite and radar
observations show a complex of thunderstorms in far west-central
Kansas that has maintained cool cloud tops and the appearance of an
MCV structure. If this MCV structure continues to deepen, it will
likely be the center of convection this afternoon and overnight
across eastern Kansas.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough will move east across Kansas
and increase rain and storm chances area-wide (60-80%). Ahead of the
advancing shortwave, low-level moisture advection will take place,
increasing PWATs to 1.25-1.75 in. across northeastern Kansas.
Diurnal heating and the surge of moisture will help MUCAPE values to
climb near 2000 J/kg as 0-6 km shear builds into the 15-30 knot
range. Better shear will reside further to our southwest, but cannot
rule out a strong to severe storm during the afternoon capable of
producing large hail (around 1 inch) and gusty winds, possibly
upwards of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be a hazard given the
increasing moisture throughout the day. Areas in northeast Kansas
will generally see 1-1.5 inches or rainfall, but isolated areas
could see up to 2-3 inches before rain and storms begin to move east
by Friday afternoon. Current thinking is that a MCV developing
within convection in western Kansas this morning will be focal point
for lift and storms this afternoon as it slides across the southwest
portion of the CWA (central Kansas). Have maintained higher-end PoPs
into Friday morning and afternoon across eastern Kansas with the
potential MCV and shortwave energy providing enough lift for
scattered to widespread showers and storms. Not expecting any severe
weather Friday afternoon given very weak flow aloft, but cannot rule
out a strong storm or two given some modest instability.

By Saturday, shortwave energy moves east of the area ushering in a
brief dry period. Split flow sets up across the CONUS with the
forecast area in between the two areas of upper-scale lift. Guidance
does have varying confidence in weak waves passing over the central
Plains within the zonal flow that could impact each day`s weather.
Due to the low confidence forecast, did not deviate much from NBM`s
precipitation chances over the extended forecast. Long-range height
anomaly plots have begun to hint at a large region of high height
anomalies over the western and central US next week. If this pattern
can play out, our first taste of summer could be in store with
warmer temperatures building into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A thunderstorm-driven TAF will be expected over the period as a
complex of decaying thunderstorms continues to push east out of
central KS this morning. Surface obs show pockets of SCT to BKN
MVFR stratus, but have kept TAFs VFR due to lack of confidence
in stratus getting below VFR status. For the remainder of the
period, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through
the period with MVFR and IFR ceilings moving into the terminals
late this TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer