914
FXUS63 KTOP 261927
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early evening.
  The stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts and small
  hail.

- Memorial Day will be dry and Sunny. Highs will reach the lower 80s.

- Thunderstorm chances will be possible again Wednesday night
  through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A mid level trough axis was moving across central Kansas this
afternoon at 19Z. DPVA to the east was producing some elevated
showers and a an isolated storm as lapse rates increase with
cold air aloft. The main frontal boundary was located across far
east central and southeast Kansas where a few storms were
developing as of 19Z.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours expect isolated
storms or showers to continue with low chances (~20%) in any given
location. Any storms will dissipate during the evening with the loss
of heating and the passing of the mid level trough axis. Another
upstream minor wave may bring a small chance of a shower into
north central and central Kansas for a few hours later this
evening. Lows tonight will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

A pleasant Memorial Day and Tuesday is expected with highs in the
lower 80s with mostly clear skies and light winds. Later on Tuesday
upslope flow into the Rockies and adjacent high Plains will bring
scattered storms to western into southwest Kansas. The propagation
will mainly be within the moisture and instability axis across
southwest and western sections of the state leaving the CWA dry. A
mid level ridge builds into the Plains ahead of a trough over the
western states. Again keeping more of the moisture and instability
confined to the western high Plains.

For Thursday into the weekend a more zonal flow sets up across
the central Plains while the main westerlies with the jet remain
across the northern plains. There will be chances for showers
and storms off and on through next weekend. Timing of
perturbations out into the central Plains as well as model
differences keeps confidence low (around 30 to 40 percent) for
precipitation chances. Temperatures remain in the 80s for highs
with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a small
chance for some scattered showers and isolated TSRA through 00Z.
With low confidence will just mention vcsh. Winds northwest
generally 10kts or less, could be a few higher gusts. Winds
decrease after 00Z from the northwest to less than 10kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53