630
FXUS63 KTOP 210743
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
243 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms early, then becoming widespread late
  today into late Sunday.

- Minor severe weather potential north this afternoon and southeast
  Sunday afternoon.

- Very warm today, much cooler Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms had redeveloped over
central Kansas overnight and should continue through the early
morning as warm-air advection slowly wanes. MUCAPE of less than 500
J/kg should keep this activity meager. Much of the daytime should be
dry until a mid-level speed max ejects northeast from the southwest
CONUS upper wave and a cold front sinks southeast into northeast
Kansas in the late afternoon. Convection is more likely with the
former item and may move into the frontal zone before updrafts
become established along it. Along with mid-level lapse rates around
6 C/km and deep layer shear less than 30 knots, severe weather
potential with the front is low. High temperatures should again
reach the 90s for much of the area despite considerable mid-level
cloud though still 5 to 15 degrees below record highs.

Periods of precipitation are expected tonight into Sunday evening as
the upper trough crosses the central Plains. Precipitable water
values reach around 2" tonight when the models agree that the
heavier amounts are likely, though NBM probabilities of over 1" in 6
hours are less than 50 percent, and the NBM 95th percentile for 6-
hour precipitation is around 1.6" which is 1" below even 1-hour
flash flood guidance with most places seeing little precipitation
recently. This keeps the flooding threat low. The cold front moves
through tonight into early Sunday afternoon. Shear and instability
again look rather limited by this point Sunday for severe weather
concerns. Considerable precipitation and cloud should keep highs in
the 60s to lower 70s, 5 to 10 degrees above record coldest highs.
SREF and NBM temperature spreads are in the 5 to 10 F range however.

A few showers could linger into Monday morning until the trough
exits, but much of the coming week appears dry with temperatures
close to normal with general ridging over the High Plains and
troughing to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Initial round of high-based convection has moved off but
additional isolated to scattered development was taking place
in south-central Kansas on moderate warm-air advection. Expect
this to spread east through the night and wane a few hours after
sunrise yielding several hours of relatively high confidence in
VFR conditions through late afternoon. The approach of the main
upper wave brings a return of precipitation at the end of this
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage