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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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068 FXUS64 KTSA 260512 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A few isolated thunderstorms continue this evening, however stronger and more widespread convection has mainly pushed west of area. Still some uncertainty regarding storm evolution tonight into Wednesday morning. Atmosphere remains very unstable and there are some indications in the CAMS that storms may fester overnight across portions of northeast Oklahoma ahead of anticipated MCS, which should move into the area from the north late tonight into Wednesday morning. Update will be sent to modestly increase PoPs across NE OK tonight with better precip coverage east of Highway 75 Wednesday morning ahead of main convective line. Update out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 OVC-BKN VFR cigs will prevail through most of the period before scattering out later in the period. Best chances for TSRA will around 12z as a complex of storms moves into NW AR at that time. This activity will translate further south and likely impact KFSM around 14z. Will include tempo groups with MVFR vsbys in thunder at the aforementioned sites during that period. TSRA chances appear limited across the OK sites, so will not include any mention with this issuance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 74 94 80 / 20 10 10 0 FSM 96 76 95 77 / 50 10 10 0 MLC 98 74 95 77 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 97 69 93 77 / 20 20 10 10 FYV 92 69 93 72 / 60 10 10 0 BYV 91 68 90 72 / 60 10 10 10 MKO 96 73 93 77 / 30 10 10 0 MIO 93 69 90 75 / 40 10 20 10 F10 99 73 93 77 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 96 74 94 76 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23