034
FXUS64 KTSA 211721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Deep layer ridging continues to spread in from the east today. In
turn, deep layer moisture will become less notable over the area
this afternoon with PWAT values nearly half of what we have seen
for most of the week. This will push any isolated shower chances
west of the region within the deeper moisture axis. More sunshine
today will allow temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than
yesterday as a notable warmup begins heading into the weekend.
Current forecast remains in good shape at this time.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper ridge to become more centered over the southern plains
through the weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures expected
Upper flow to improve some for the latter half of the weekend,
which may result in a some shower and storms near the KS/OK and
NW AR/SW MO Sunday morning. With low coverage expected, will
leave mentionable PoPs out at this time. Upper ridge early next
week will build across the SW CONUS, resulting in a NW flow
pattern across the E OK and NW AR. `Best` chances for showers and
storms come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a S-SE moving upper
wave brings a frontal boundary into the area. Will include low
PoPs in at the end of the forecast cycle as another upper wave
moves across the central plains late Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures will be on the increase in the Sunday through Tuesday
timeframe- but areas that see a frontal passage around mid week
will likely see slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with scattered
cumulus around this afternoon and mostly clear skies expected
through tonight into tomorrow. Gusty south-southwesterly winds
around 15kts across northeast Oklahoma sites this afternoon will
lessen this evening. Winds will come around more southwesterly for
all sites tomorrow morning as a boundary approaches the area from
the northwest.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   72  96  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   71  93  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   71  95  75  97 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   69  93  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   69  93  74  94 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   71  93  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  93  75  94 /   0   0  10  10
F10   70  93  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   71  92  74  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04