474
FXUS64 KTSA 131719
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Quiet weather is expected through the afternoon with clear skies
and high temps generally in the lower/ mid 90s across the area.
Heat indices will likely max out in the upper 90s/ near 100 across
E OK & AR River valley. Aside from some minor adjustments to
winds, the current forecast is on track and no significant
deviations are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies and
increasing southerly winds. Cold front extending from central MO
through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm
development. These storms will spread east and south through the
evening and may move into areas near the OK/KS border as they
steadily weaken. Confidence remains low in both coverage and
southward extent of any storms and most areas are likely to remain
dry through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The cold front / thunderstorm outflow boundary will likely slide
into portions of NE OK / far NW AR on Friday before steadily
losing definition. The boundary will likely pool a corridor of
higher dewpoints and resultant higher afternoon heat index
readings. Additionally, isolated storms are possible along the
boundary but, again, confidence remains low in both storm
development and overall coverage.

Shortwave trough passes across the central CONUS late Saturday
into early Sunday. The majority of storms associated with this
feature are expected to be north of local region with a low chance
extending across northeast OK. Upper ridge centers over the SE
CONUS by Monday with strengthening southerly flow on its periphery
drawing deeper moisture northward into the region. Isolated to
scattered afternoon storms are expected both Monday and Tuesday
and primarily across far E OK / NW AR. High temps will cool a few
degrees from previous days but remain above mid June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all
sites. Other than some afternoon cumulus, there is a very low
chance of a shower or thunderstorm in NE OK later this evening.
However, did not mention in TAFs due to low probability of
occurring. Either way, thunderstorm cloud debris will probably
move into the area this evening & early overnight... providing FEW
to SCT mid/ high level clouds. Breezy SW winds this afternoon
become light this evening & overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  95  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   70  96  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   68  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  94  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   66  93  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   67  92  70  93 /  20  20  20  10
MKO   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  91  70  92 /  20  20  20  10
F10   68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   67  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43