Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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474 FXUS64 KTSA 131719 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the afternoon with clear skies and high temps generally in the lower/ mid 90s across the area. Heat indices will likely max out in the upper 90s/ near 100 across E OK & AR River valley. Aside from some minor adjustments to winds, the current forecast is on track and no significant deviations are anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies and increasing southerly winds. Cold front extending from central MO through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm development. These storms will spread east and south through the evening and may move into areas near the OK/KS border as they steadily weaken. Confidence remains low in both coverage and southward extent of any storms and most areas are likely to remain dry through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The cold front / thunderstorm outflow boundary will likely slide into portions of NE OK / far NW AR on Friday before steadily losing definition. The boundary will likely pool a corridor of higher dewpoints and resultant higher afternoon heat index readings. Additionally, isolated storms are possible along the boundary but, again, confidence remains low in both storm development and overall coverage. Shortwave trough passes across the central CONUS late Saturday into early Sunday. The majority of storms associated with this feature are expected to be north of local region with a low chance extending across northeast OK. Upper ridge centers over the SE CONUS by Monday with strengthening southerly flow on its periphery drawing deeper moisture northward into the region. Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected both Monday and Tuesday and primarily across far E OK / NW AR. High temps will cool a few degrees from previous days but remain above mid June normals. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all sites. Other than some afternoon cumulus, there is a very low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in NE OK later this evening. However, did not mention in TAFs due to low probability of occurring. Either way, thunderstorm cloud debris will probably move into the area this evening & early overnight... providing FEW to SCT mid/ high level clouds. Breezy SW winds this afternoon become light this evening & overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 95 72 95 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 70 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 68 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 68 94 69 94 / 20 10 10 10 FYV 66 93 70 93 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 67 92 70 93 / 20 20 20 10 MKO 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 69 91 70 92 / 20 20 20 10 F10 68 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 67 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43