280
FXUS64 KTSA 090549
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A few showers occurring across NE OK this afternoon ahead
of a cold front that is currently across S KS. Very warm and
humid afternoon in progress with low to mid 90s across much of E
OK and sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

Shower and storm chances will mainly remain across the north
overnight in the vicinity of the boundary as an upper wave moves
across KS. Boundary will get a push into the area later
tonight, but level of convective reinforcement will likely
determine how far south it gets into the area tonight. At this
time will keep lower end PoPs roughly along and north of highway
412.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Cold front to make its way through the area Sunday, with cooler
temps and drier air filtering in behind the boundary. Slightly
higher shower and thunder chances will translate south with
boundary trough the day, but will keep low PoPs approximately i-40
and south Sunday night. Sfc ridge axis settles across the midwest
early next week which will keep the drier air across the area for
a few days, while keeping the better rain chances west and
southwest of the area. Another upper wave move across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, and will include lower end PoPs as low
level moisture increases on southerly winds ahead of this
feature. Dry, but warmer conditions are expected for the latter
portion of the week as upper ridging appears sufficient enough to
keep showers and storms north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Ongoing VFR conditions will transition toward higher storm chances
later tonight across NE OK and into far NW AR toward sunrise. The
outflow / cold front associated with the passage of the early day
storms will continue southward through the day a be focus for
additional storms by mid afternoon generally along and south of
Interstate 40. A period of MVFR ceilings are also expected north
of the boundary with this corridor of lower ceilings spreading
southward through the afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  84  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  64  87 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   66  83  64  84 /  30  30  10  20
BVO   58  83  59  83 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   59  83  59  84 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   58  81  58  82 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   65  82  63  82 /  20  10  10  20
MIO   58  81  59  82 /  10  10  10  10
F10   65  82  63  80 /  20  20  10  20
HHW   69  82  65  82 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07