607
FXUS64 KTSA 190708
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Near normal temperatures, partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today.
Very light showers remain early this morning across Osage and
Pawnee counties on the edge of a modest low level jet and may
persist into mid morning before dissipating. An increase in cloud
cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures
a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Surface high pressure will nose into the area overnight, leading
to lighter and more easterly winds than the last few nights, which
should promote cooler low temperatures for Thursday morning than
we have seen of late. During the day Thursday, cloud cover should
diminish overall, as the moisture from the tropical system to our
south is pushed west of the area by the expanding upper level high
to the east. There could be more isolated shower and thunderstorm
development on Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast
Oklahoma on the edge of the expanding high, and this potential
will be added to the NBM offering.

For Friday and into the weekend, the temperature and moisture
combination takes focus with the high overhead. Temperatures
should reach well above normal levels for the weekend and continue
into early next week. An increase in moisture remains expected by
Sunday, which will make the heat stress potential worse. Expect
widespread triple digit heat index values, with a likely need for
heat headlines during much of this time frame.

Toward early next week, the high remains expected to shift far
enough west to allow for some more organized shower and
thunderstorm potential. Have adjusted the NBM initialization up a
bit to allow for mentionable POPs Sunday night/Monday morning and
also Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the
night with just a few clouds in the 4-6 kft layer and some higher
clouds at or above 15 kft. One exception to this will be for the
terminals near Tulsa as well as KBVO, where clouds will be a bit
thicker with some isolated light rain showers possible through 9Z
or so. Coverage will be sparse with no impacts expected.

During the day Wednesday, winds will again become breezy out of
the south, but speeds will be lower at 10-20 kts most areas. FEW-
SCT clouds are expected in the 4-6 kft layer through the day with
additional mid and high clouds. A few afternoon showers and storms
will pop up, especially near KMLC up to KFSM, but for now did not
include mention in the TAFs as they will be very isolated. Should
a storm occur, it would result in brief heavy rain and gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   91  73  93  73 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   90  71  91  71 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   91  69  91  69 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   90  68  90  68 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   90  68  90  68 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   90  72  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   90  71  90  71 /  10  10   0   0
F10   89  71  89  71 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   86  73  90  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06