131
FXUS64 KTSA 200511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Isolated showers have been noted early this evening across the
local region and may continue into the early morning hours. Weak
boundary extending into SE KS is likely to remain north of NE OK
and any associated thunderstorms are likewise not forecast into
the area. Overall precip coverage along with any measurable
amounts will both remain very low through the overnight hours.
Another mild night expected and updated forecast will primarily
adjust for observed trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Upper level ridging will begin expanding back westward during the
day Thursday which should lead to diminishing cloud cover over the
region and the beginning of a warmup heading into the weekend. A
few more isolated showers still look possible across mainly the
southern half of Oklahoma Thursday afternoon where deeper
moisture remains in place. Have maintained PoPs for those areas
tomorrow though coverage is expected to be minimal at best due to
the expanding high.

Much warmer temperatures are forecast from Friday through the
weekend as the upper high becomes planted over the Southern
Plains. Highs near 100 degrees look to be common across the
region, with heat index values likely rising above that. Heat
headlines could be needed at some point this weekend, especially
by Sunday as moisture increases. The southern periphery of a
diffuse frontal boundary could slip into northeast Oklahoma
Sunday morning and bring some low chances for a few showers from
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the day. This
boundary is expected to wash out and shift back north of the
region by Monday.

Guidance continues to indicate that the upper ridge will shift
further westward early next week, though differences remain in how
far west within the various deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Nevertheless, some semblance of northwest flow aloft
should spread over the region from early to mid next week,
bringing increased chances for showers and storms to affect the
area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered
clouds, mostly in the 3-6 kft layer are expected to develop
tonight, persisting through the day Thursday. Scattered high
clouds are also expected. Winds will be light and mostly out of
the southeast. A few very isolated showers or storms could develop
Thursday afternoon, but the probability of impacting a terminal is
20 percent or less. If a storm did develop near a terminal, the
main impact would be from gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   93  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   89  71  93  70 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   91  71  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   91  68  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   89  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   89  72  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   89  71  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   89  71  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   89  71  91  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06