Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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332 FXUS64 KTSA 191712 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but most places will remain dry. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail, with afternoon highs in the 90s. Heat index values may briefly reach near 105 in a few spots this afternoon, but the coverage and duration of such values look limited enough to preclude any heat headlines at this time. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon near and east of a weak surface trough across north central Oklahoma, with these storms moving into parts of northeast Oklahoma towards the end of the day. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Storm coverage remains uncertain into the evening hours, but at least a few isolated storms are likely to continue for awhile and propagate south before dissipating by late evening. Friday looks like another unseasonably hot day, likely even hotter than today, with afternoon heat index values again near 105 in some places. Late afternoon and evening storm chances Friday remain low...below mentionable levels...but non-zero. Saturday will be another hot day, with low shower and storm chances across northern parts of the area. Changes begin to take place Sunday as an upper level storm system moves northeast into the plains allowing a cold front to approach the area from the west. Shower and storm chances will be greatest late Sunday into Sunday night as this cold front moves across our area. Much cooler weather will follow the passage of this front early next week, with below normal temperatures at least for a couple days. Low rain chances may return Tuesday night and Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the area, but confidence in precipitation during this time frame is low. Attention may also turn to the Gulf of Mexico next week for the potential for tropical cyclone development. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after 21z along a surface trough moving toward NE OK. Coverage remains in question however and these conditions continue to be represented with increase in clouds at NE OK sites. While VFR conditions will continue to prevail, direct impact from storms (20% chance or less) could result in brief gusty winds and potentially MVFR ceilings. Some south wind gusts around 20 knots will continue through this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 74 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 94 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 0 MLC 96 74 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 97 69 99 72 / 20 20 10 10 FYV 91 70 94 70 / 10 20 10 10 BYV 92 71 95 72 / 10 20 10 10 MKO 94 73 97 74 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 94 71 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 F10 96 73 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 95 71 98 72 / 10 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14