Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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654 FXUS64 KTSA 180540 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The current forecast remains on track with no significant changes required at this time. Patchy fog may once again develop over portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight into tomorrow morning. While no widespread significant visibility reductions are expected, fog may occasionally become locally dense across NW AR & SE OK... especially in the typically favored valleys. Otherwise, low temperatures in the 60s are forecast areawide with light/ calm winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Still a considerable amount of stratocu covering eastern OK and western AR this afternoon. Expectation remains for this to break up and dissipate tonight with patchy fog possible in the valley areas of northwest AR and possibly southeast OK. Any significant reductions likely to remain quite localized however. High plains convection forced by the ejecting trough through the Central Rockies should remain well to our northwest through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Main story for the next few days will be the return of much above normal temperatures as the Southern Plains remain under the ridge portion of a blocking pattern. Data continues to support daytime highs warming well into the 90s by Thursday/Friday, and parts of northeast OK approaching 100 both days. Does not appear dew points will increase too significantly, thus at this time do not expect a need for heat advisories. A second upper trough now approaching the west coast will follow a slightly more southern trajectory than the current system, though the brunt of forcing still should remain north. Still this could offer up some relief from the heat by the weekend as a frontal boundary is potentially forced through the area by the beginning of next week. Timing is still uncertain with relevant features, and the forecast will continue to reflect the NBM with low-end chance of thunderstorms beginning late Saturday and continuing into next week, with temperatures trending more toward seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Scattered to broken high clouds associated with ongoing convection over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to Western Kansas will continue to spread eastward into the CWA overnight tonight. At this time...the greater precip potential should remain west and northwest of Northeast Oklahoma. Also overnight...patchy areas of reduced visibility are possible and will add a tempo group to KFYV. During the day Wednesday...scattered diurnal cumulus clouds are again forecast to develop over the CWA and then dissipate Wednesday evening. There may be period as clouds develop that MVFR ceilings are possible before lifting to around 5kft for the afternoon hours. Mostly clear to scattered high clouds are then forecast Wednesday evening/night. Winds through the period should vary between east and south. VFR conditions are forecast for the majority of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 97 75 99 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 69 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 71 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 68 98 70 100 / 10 10 10 10 FYV 66 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 65 92 70 94 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 69 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 68 94 72 97 / 0 0 10 10 F10 71 96 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 69 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...20