Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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813 FXUS64 KTSA 250247 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 947 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across northeast Oklahoma just south Hwy 412. Storms have become severe at times over the last couple of hours, with large hail and damaging wind threats. The airmass south of current activity is characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, mid level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40-50 kts. While this environment will become less favorable with time, suspect ongoing storms should be able to maintain strength for awhile as they move southward into SE OK late this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue to be the main hazards associated with these storms, as well as locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 11 PM. Rain should become increasingly confined to southeast Oklahoma early tonight before moving out of the FA completely late overnight/ early tomorrow morning. In its wake, skies are expected to clear with increasing potential for fog development, especially across NE OK & NW AR where it may become locally dense. Added mention of patchy fog for much of NE OK and portions of NW AR late tonight into tomorrow morning. While fog may also develop across parts of SE OK, lingering cloudiness & precip may tend to limit fog potential here. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions tonight behind the ongoing storms with light winds and lows generally in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system. This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move out of the area late tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread south and east this evening across E OK and NW AR with additional development possible over the next several hours. This may lead to at least brief ceiling & vsby reductions, with highest potential for flight impacts expected for MLC. Most precip should move south of TAF sites by 07z with clearing conditions behind this activity. This may allow for development of fog late tonight/ tomorrow morning (low to medium chance). At this time, MLC and FSM appear to be most favored for vsby reductions and have included TEMPO groups here. Other sites in E OK & NW AR may also experience at least brief vsby reductions, but confidence was not high enough to include mention with this forecast issuance. Aside from any lingering fog tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 58 81 54 80 / 70 0 0 0 FSM 61 82 59 82 / 70 0 0 10 MLC 60 81 56 81 / 80 0 0 0 BVO 52 81 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 54 79 51 78 / 50 0 0 20 BYV 54 78 51 77 / 30 0 0 20 MKO 57 79 55 79 / 70 0 0 10 MIO 54 79 50 78 / 20 0 0 10 F10 58 80 53 79 / 80 0 0 0 HHW 63 81 56 82 / 70 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...43 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...43