Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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626 FXUS64 KTSA 221922 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Latest regional surface analysis shows the well-advertised cold front beginning to move into the forecast area from the northwest. Winds across northeast OK have already turned northerly, courtesy of an outflow boundary that pushed through this morning. KINX radar imagery shows a few isolated showers/storms have formed along this outflow boundary in far eastern OK and northwest AR. However, the main concentration of thunderstorm activity so far has been confined closer to and just ahead of the frontal boundary across central/western OK. Visible satellite trends and SPC Mesoscale Analysis both show convective inhibition has been mostly depleted and instability increasing, especially near and ahead of that outflow boundary where more sun is shining at the moment. The front will gradually continue to advance southeastward through the day and CAM guidance suggests additional thunderstorm development along and ahead of the front through the afternoon. Sufficient instability, moisture, lift, and wind shear will be in place for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms through at least sunset this evening. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should sharply limit the severe potential, though cannot rule out a strong storm or two after sunset. Locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and small hail (< 1 inch) will be the primary hazards with any organized thunderstorms. Additionally, PWATs have increased above 1.5 inches (above the 90th percentile for this time of the year) across much of eastern OK and northwest AR. As such, moderate to heavy rain, with pockets of very heavy rain at times, may cause localized flooding to occur through the overnight hours and into Monday morning. Because steering flow will be somewhat parallel to the frontal boundary, there is potential for training storms that may add to the localized flooding threat. Some of the heaviest rain (1 to 1.5 inches, locally high amounts) is expected to fall along and north of the I-40 corridor between this afternoon through Monday morning. Significantly cooler temperatures will be felt behind the frontal boundary, especially after sunset this evening. The front will slowly and gradually push east of the forecast area late tonight or by the early morning hours Monday. Thick cloud cover and rain chances will maintain low temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s overnight tonight behind the front, with low temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 60s and lower 70s across southeast OK and west-central AR. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average. Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below seasonal average through the long term. Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture, affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Aviation conditions are expected to deteriorate mid to late afternoon into the overnight at all terminals, with widespread IFR ceilings behind a cold front that will pass through the area and expected shower and thunderstorm impacts. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain expected, beginning this afternoon at TUL/RVS (given the storms approaching from central OK) continuing into other TAF sites into early Monday morning. In addition, expect a wind shift at FYV/ROG within the first hour or so of the TAF period due to a pre-frontal boundary passage, which sits between XNA and those 2 sites at present. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 72 57 79 / 90 60 10 10 FSM 72 80 62 81 / 60 80 20 10 MLC 64 75 57 83 / 70 80 10 10 BVO 58 71 53 80 / 70 40 0 10 FYV 65 75 58 76 / 70 80 20 10 BYV 66 75 60 76 / 70 80 40 10 MKO 64 72 57 79 / 80 80 10 10 MIO 61 70 57 76 / 80 70 10 10 F10 61 72 55 81 / 90 70 10 10 HHW 69 80 60 86 / 40 60 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22