Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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998 FXUS64 KTSA 101103 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 603 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A few showers remained across far Southeast Oklahoma early this morning in response to weak frontogenetic forcing in the 925-850-mb layer still yet to push south of the Red River. This activity along with a slight chance for thunder will continue to be possible through mid morning and then should taper off and exit with the departing elevated frontal boundary. The northern periphery of elevated instability remained over this area...though with weak shear in place severe weather is not anticipated this morning. Across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today...cloud cover is expected to scatter from north to south with easterly winds as the southern portion of surface high pressure drops into the region. By mid afternoon mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with high temps in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The cooler conditions are forecast to continue into Tuesday before surface high pressure exits to the east/northeast. In the wake of the departing high pressure...a weak shortwave is progged to drop southeast across the Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. With influence of high pressure not expected to exit until Tuesday afternoon/evening...the track of the weak shortwave is progged to now be more southwest of the CWA. Thus...shower/storm chances now look to remain west and southwest of the CWA into Wednesday. In response...the temperature warming trend is now forecast to begin Wednesday for the CWA and continue into the weekend. Warm and more humid conditions increase late week and the weekend with heat index values of mid 90s to around 100 deg as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. This ridge should keep a shortwave lifting out of the Desert Southwest during the weekend to the northwest of the CWA. Thus...no significant precip chances are in the forecast through the weekend. One thing to note...is just outside of this forecast package...latest extended model solutions indicate an area of low pressure lifting northward from the Gulf into the region for early next week. This will be something to monitor over the coming week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Isolated dense fog has developed across far NW AR while a corridor of low VFR ceilings remains from west central AR through SE OK. The trend through the morning will be for the lower clouds to clear from north to south while high clouds remain. Fog will erode by mid morning. VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period with light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 85 63 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 85 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 83 57 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 81 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 83 57 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 F10 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 10 0 HHW 83 64 84 64 / 20 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07