Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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258 FXUS64 KTSA 201534 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Mid-level heights will be rising over the region today as the ridge center that has been situated over the eastern CONUS flattens and shifts west in our direction. A ridge in the upper levels centered over southern TX will continue to throw high clouds up over us from the outflow of Alberto down in Mexico. A deep-layer moist axis extends northeast from the storm up across TX and into OK, with drier air over a deep layer working into our area from the east. Will maintain low PoPs for showers across portions of eastern OK thru the afternoon. Expect increasing lower cloud coverage thru the day as the BL warms. Used a blend of higher CONShort and NBM for cloud cover. Temps will remain just slightly above average for this time of year. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Overall, conditions expected today should be similar to those of the last few days, with afternoon temperatures running near normal, lighter wind speeds like yesterday and potential for widely scattered shower and thunderstorm afternoon development. Areas along and south of I-40 and also northwest of I-44 remain favored for the showers and thunderstorms, and slight chance POPs have been added to the NBM initialization to cover this potential. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Upper level high pressure over the eastern United States will continue to shift westward late this week and into the weekend, which should lead to decreasing cloud cover, even less potential for showers and thunderstorms and a marked increase in the heat and heat stress potential. Expect afternoon temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in a few spots and triple digit heat index values by Saturday. With the center of the high shifting west of the area late in the weekend and early next week, shower and thunderstorm chances should go up accordingly. Much like yesterday, the NBM POPs and Sky cover have been adjusted upward, especially across northern parts of the area Sunday night/Monday morning and again, Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the high not directly overhead, an expectation of higher moisture from Sunday on and potential for cloud cover and convective impacts, afternoon highs have been adjusted downward from the NBM initialization closer to the NBM 50th percentile, which reflect values closer to traditional MOS guidance. Still, the combination of afternoon temperatures and expected higher dew points remains likely to lead to widespread heat index values above 105 and the need for heat headlines from Sunday on. Keep this in mind if you have outdoor recreation or work plans. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Scattered low clouds in the 2.5-5 kft layer will develop this morning. A few areas may see ceilings develop down to 5-6 kft, with the most likely being KMLC and KFSM. Few to sct clouds will persist in the 4-6 kft layer through the afternoon. High clouds at or above 15 kft will also thicken up during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be mostly light and out of the southeast. A few stray afternoon showers or storms may develop (10-30% chance) with gusty outflow winds being the main impact. If confidence increases, a mention of showers or storms will be added to the TAFs in future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 74 94 74 / 20 10 0 0 FSM 92 72 96 73 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 88 70 93 70 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 91 71 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 89 68 93 69 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 88 67 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 88 72 92 71 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 88 72 92 71 / 10 10 0 0 F10 87 71 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 88 70 92 70 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06