311
FXUS64 KTSA 190529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few showers have moved into the northwest corner of the forecast
area, and have added low pops to the forecast there for the rest
of the night. The main area of showers and storms to the northwest
will not affect our area, but a few light showers may continue
to fester overnight. The rest of the forecast is on track at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A couple of isolated showers will be possible across northeast
Oklahoma Wednesday morning within a zone of weak isentropic
ascent which will quickly weaken by mid morning. A more focused
area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by
afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep
tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one
in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. A narrow axis of
increased isentropic ascent associated with this moisture surge
along with the diurnal heating Wednesday afternoon, should be
enough for isolated to widely scattered shower development first
across western Arkansas and spreading northwestward throughout the
afternoon. Some elevated instability present will allow for some
slight thunder chances with any thunderstorms producing gusty
winds and heavy, tropical downpours. Severe weather is not
expected at this point. The cloud cover and rain chances will once
again help keep temperatures down somewhat tomorrow afternoon as
well.

The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into
the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and
especially this weekend. the result will be hot and humid
conditions with very little in the way of rain chances through
Sunday. Ensemble guidance does continue to indicate that the
ridge will continue shifting westward into next week, becoming
planted over the Desert Southwest. This will place the region
under northwest flow aloft which should bring daily thunderstorm
chances along with slightly cooler temperatures heading into the
middle of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the
night with just a few clouds in the 4-6 kft layer and some higher
clouds at or above 15 kft. One exception to this will be for the
terminals near Tulsa as well as KBVO, where clouds will be a bit
thicker with some isolated light rain showers possible through 9Z
or so. Coverage will be sparse with no impacts expected.

During the day Wednesday, winds will again become breezy out of
the south, but speeds will be lower at 10-20 kts most areas. FEW-
SCT clouds are expected in the 4-6 kft layer through the day with
additional mid and high clouds. A few afternoon showers and storms
will pop up, especially near KMLC up to KFSM, but for now did not
include mention in the TAFs as they will be very isolated. Should
a storm occur, it would result in brief heavy rain and gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  72  91  73 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   89  72  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   89  71  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   92  69  91  69 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   89  67  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   88  67  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   89  72  90  71 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   90  69  90  70 /  20   0   0   0
F10   89  70  89  71 /  20   0  10   0
HHW   86  72  89  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06