410
FXUS64 KTSA 251915
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Isolated showers/storms are expected late this afternoon
and into the evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas with a little better coverage possible
across northern portions of the area as a weak mid-level
shortwave traverses the area. Any of the storms that develop
late this afternoon and evening will have potential to become
briefly strong/severe with damaging winds the concern.  Greater
coverage of showers/storms will be possible late tonight across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a thunderstorm
complex is forecast to spread into the region from the
north/northeast. Strong to severe winds will also be possible
with this storm complex.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with
additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant
outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday
as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning
may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday
afternoon.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the
forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of
the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will
be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal
boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions ongoing across the region and will largely
continue through much of this forecast period. Weakening
convection along the OK/KS line marks influence of passing wave
and this feature may support additional isolated afternoon storms
across NE OK / NW AR but coverage will be too low to mention.
Additional storms may move into portions of the area late tonight
through Wed morning. Coverage and placement both remain uncertain
with slightly higher chances across western AR supportive of a
mention through the morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of any thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   78  96  76  95 /  30  40  10  10
MLC   78  98  74  95 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   73  97  69  93 /  20  10  20  10
FYV   72  92  69  93 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   72  91  68  90 /  50  70  10  10
MKO   77  96  73  93 /  30  30  10  10
MIO   72  93  69  90 /  40  30  10  20
F10   76  99  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   77  96  74  94 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07