Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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089 FXUS64 KTSA 170851 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 351 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas of dense fog have developed in Carroll county Arkansas and may spread into parts of Madison county early this morning. Thus have issued a dense fog advisory for those two counties until 9 am. Once the fog and low clouds burn off, sunshine will return, allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A warming trend will take place during the rest of the work week, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected by Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds over the area. Afternoon high temperatures may approach the century mark in parts of northeast Oklahoma, with all locations warming well into the 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain west of our area through Friday. By the weekend, an upper trough to the west will begin to break down the upper ridge, and low rain chances may return to the northern part of the forecast area. The upper trough looks to move into the central plains by late in the weekend, allowing a cold front to at least approach the area by Sunday night. The ECMWF is now more aggressive than the GFS with the southern push of this boundary and resultant cooler temperatures early next week, which is a flip flop from recent days. For now, will stick close to the NBM showing a much more modest cooldown early next week. More significant rain chances may eventually develop later next week, but this too is highly uncertain and beyond the range of this forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Scattered to broken MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings ongoing across across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas are expected to continue overnight into Tuesday morning. At the same time...light easterly winds and few/scattered MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings in far Northwest Arkansas could lead to patchy/areas of reduced visibility late tonight into Tuesday morning. Thus will continue with tempo groups for timing of fog potential at KXNA/KROG/KFYV. Across Northeast Oklahoma...mostly clear to few MVFR ceilings are forecast tonight into Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday...LIFR to MVFR conditions in Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas and MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings in Northeast Oklahoma should all become scattered to broken VFR by early afternoon. Diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate by early evening with few/scattered high clouds Tuesday night. Winds through the period should remain east to southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 68 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 86 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 88 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 90 64 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 85 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 85 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 86 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 F10 86 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 85 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ002-011. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...20