Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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197 FXUS64 KTSA 230216 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary further south. Main updates will be for PoPs- with focus through 06z on latest trends which will keep highest PoPs over east central Oklahoma. After 06z, several model solutions continue with additional development back to the north as a little bit of elevated instability coincides with the 850mb boundary. Coverage is a bit uncertain, especially in the 09z-12z period, so have opted to trim back from categorical PoPs with this update. Will also keep thunder mention to just chance. Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air infiltrating the region overnight. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average. Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below seasonal average through the long term. Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture, affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight as a cold front, currently located just north of I-44 continues to slowly push south tonight. Several rounds over rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected overnight through Monday morning before the heavier precipitation shifts east of NW AR terminals around noon. Ceiling will continue to fall behind front with IFR conditions likely with FROPA across NE OK spreading into SE OK late tonight. Models hint a weak surface low developing along frontal boundary across NW AR Monday morning. Ceiling heights / visibilities will likely be erratic at those terminals before lower clouds/IFR conditions spread into the region Monday afternoon on backside of departing low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 72 57 79 / 70 60 10 10 FSM 72 80 62 81 / 60 80 20 10 MLC 64 75 57 83 / 70 80 10 10 BVO 58 71 53 80 / 60 40 0 10 FYV 65 75 58 76 / 70 80 20 10 BYV 66 75 60 76 / 70 80 40 10 MKO 64 72 57 79 / 80 80 10 10 MIO 61 70 57 76 / 60 70 10 10 F10 61 72 55 81 / 90 70 10 10 HHW 69 80 60 86 / 40 60 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...12