587
FXUS64 KTSA 161919
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low
continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while
weakening. Thus a few showers remain possible across parts of
western AR into the evening. The residual impact of moisture
along with clearing skies does imply some fog potential tonight
for most of western AR into some of eastern OK. While no strong
signal is present in the data for widespread impacts, some locally
significant reductions to visibility in normally more fog-prone
locations is implied.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tuesday will see one more relatively okay weather day before
summer makes a late rally that persists through most of the week
and possibly into the weekend. A prolonged blocking pattern
featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in
rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well.

Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving
through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. This may
provide a brief glancing blow of forcing over the northwestern
sections of the forecast area by Tue night or Wed morning, but
most associated storm chances will likely remain to the northwest.
A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first
one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge
over the Southern Plains. This should result in much above normal
temperatures for Thu and Fri, with some locations of northeast OK
making a run at the century mark.

BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move,
however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our
weather at this time. Forecast will maintain lower-end chance of
thunderstorms beginning Friday night, with a modest "cool-down"
(still above normal) into early next week. No real fall weather
anytime soon it would appear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A trend toward VFR conditions as clouds scatter is the trend in
the near term across E OK and KFSM. The far NW AR sites may keep
MVFR cigs thru early evening before they scatter out. Short-term
ensemble data (HREF) indicates potential for low clouds and fog
Tuesday morning at the NW AR (more fog) and the E OK (more low
cloud) sites. Used TEMPOs to convey potential for now at the far
NW AR sites, dropping to IFR or blo around daybreak. For the E OK
sites, used TEMPOs to convey MVFR vsby/cig potential, though data
pointed to IFR potential at KMLC. All TAF sites will likely have a
period of MVFR cigs during the morning hours before cigs rise and
scatter toward midday on Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   68  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  88  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  90  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   63  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  85  62  87 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   65  85  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  88  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
F10   65  86  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  85  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30