Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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245 FXUS64 KTSA 142000 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A Heat Advisory is ongoing for portions of NE OK this afternoon as heat indices climb to near 105 degrees and WBGT values approach 90 degrees (Extreme Risk). Temps will fall enough to allow the Heat Advisory across parts of NE OK to expire at 6 PM this evening. There remains a very low potential for a few stray showers or storms this evening as a weak boundary drifts into NE OK/ NW AR. Will maintain slight chance PoPs as any precip should remain spotty at best. A shortwave is forecast to move through the plains late tonight and Saturday... though the more significant height falls will remain north of the CWA. CAMs suggest an area of showers and storms will develop across E CO/ W KS this evening and track east- northeast overnight. Again, there is a very low chance a shower or two scrapes far NE OK as this occurs (late overnight/ early Sat morning)... but will hold PoPs below 15%. Otherwise, a quiet night is in store with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds. Low temperatures should land within a few degrees of 70 areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 There remains a low chance for isolated shower/ storm development primarily across NW AR during the afternoon/ early evening tomorrow as the aforementioned wave progresses ENE. Otherwise Saturday and Sunday are currently expected to remain predominantly dry. There are some hints at additional isolated precip development Sunday afternoon... primarily across far E OK/ NW AR... but opted to keep PoPs less than 10% for now. Additionally, pressure gradients tighten this weekend in response to strengthening lee lows in the N/C Plains. This will provide breezier conditions (15-25 mph) which should help keep WBGT values down a touch. Still, summer heat will continue across the region with high temps remaining in the mid 90s and heat indices flirting with advisory criteria this weekend. For late weekend into next week, ridging increases across E CONUS as longwave troughing expands over the intermountain west. Under this pattern, low level southerly flow is forecast to persist for much of the extended period. Resulting winds will continue to be fairly breezy to windy through the first part of the week... with gusts up to 25-35 mph. By mid to late week, the ridge begins to expand westward into the S Plains. This may allow for additional moisture from the gulf to arrive and increase PWATs, especially across eastern portions of the CWA. At least low chances for rain/ thunder are forecast each afternoon next week, initially highest across W Arkansas, then expanding west to include E OK by later in the week as moisture increases. That being said, widespread wetting rainfall is not expected at this time. While high temps may drop a few degrees next week due to increasing moisture/ clouds, still expecting most locations to approach or exceed 90 degrees. Low temperatures will remain near 70 degrees through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 69 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 69 94 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 69 94 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 71 94 71 94 / 20 20 0 0 MKO 70 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 72 93 72 93 / 20 10 0 0 F10 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-057>062-064- 067. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...23