Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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153 FXUS64 KTSA 261124 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 In a change of pace, today will likely begin with rain and storms across portions of E OK & NW AR. An MCS currently located in the C Plains is projected to surge south-southeast through the morning hours with potential impacts in our area between daybreak and early afternoon. While CAMs have come into better agreement regarding this feature, there is still some question regarding its westward extent and impact on afternoon temps (and heat indices). As it stands, NW AR zones are most likely to be impacted by storms, with decreasing PoPs further west... dropping to just a slight chance west of the Hwy 75 corridor. These storms may be severe and produce damaging outflow winds as they move southward. Depending on the intensity and coverage of morning convection (and resultant position of remnant boundaries), there may be some potential for redevelopment this afternoon across SE OK/ W-Central AR. However, due to uncertainty, will keep PoPs capped at slight chance for now. Currently leaning towards the idea that morning storms move south of the area by early afternoon with skies clearing behind them... thus allowing temps to warm quite well despite potential for a slower start. Will leave the ongoing advisory as is for the time being, as at least E OK zones are still very likely to exceed Heat Advisory criteria. In fact, parts of E OK may very well end up climbing into warning territory if temps are not significantly influenced by morning storms/ cloudiness (Heat Index >110 degrees). Opted to hold off on upgrading to an Excessive Heat Warning at this time due to uncertainty regarding convective evolution this morning.... but this will need to be monitored closely. The advisory also continues for W-Central AR, though there is less confidence regarding temperature recovery here. Still believe odds favor max heat indices in the 105-108 range, but if storms/ cloudiness hangs on longer than forecast, temps may struggle to produce advisory-level heat indices here. Either way, it is yet another day to take the heat seriously and take precautions when spending time outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Any ongoing precip will decay or move south of the area this evening with quiet weather overnight. Northeast sfc winds fill in this evening and overnight behind today`s storms, bringing drier and slightly cooler air into the region for Thursday. This should hold max heat indices in check... generally in the upper 90s/ lower 100s. The break from the heat will be short-lived however as upper ridging expands back over the area Friday/ Saturday with additional heat headlines looking probable. Another front tries to push into the region later Saturday into Sunday with a chance of showers and storms returning mainly to NE OK & NW AR. This may provide another short-lived break from the heat on Sunday but dangerous heat is forecast to return next week as positive height anomalies return yet again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Chances for TSRA will impact the NE OK and AR sites through 16z as a complex of storms moves through the area. Will include tempo groups with MVFR vsbys in thunder at those aforementioned sites during that period. TSRA chances appear limited at KMLC so will not include any mention with this issuance. Cigs are expected to remain at VFR categories before scattering out this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 74 95 79 / 40 0 10 10 FSM 97 76 95 75 / 60 10 10 0 MLC 98 74 95 77 / 40 10 0 0 BVO 97 69 93 76 / 30 0 10 10 FYV 91 68 92 72 / 60 10 10 0 BYV 88 68 90 69 / 70 0 10 0 MKO 96 73 92 76 / 40 10 10 0 MIO 92 68 91 75 / 50 0 10 10 F10 97 72 92 76 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 96 74 92 74 / 40 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...23