526
FXUS64 KTSA 220752
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a
broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern
plains today. Surface low and attendant boundary to the north
will result in a little bit stronger winds today, mainly across
parts of northeast Oklahoma. Proximity of ridge will lead to
warmer temperatures today. This, along with slightly higher
dewpoints advecting into the area will increase impacts from heat
related stress some. That said, maximum heat index values are
expected to remain below 105 this afternoon. Isolated showers and
storms along the aforementioned boundary may approach the KS/OK
and MO/AR borders late tonight, but will not include a mention
given the low coverage expected

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The heat will continue to build Sunday and into next week as the
upper ridge continues shifting to the west and centering over the
four corners region by Wednesday, thus placing the forecast area
in NW flow. An upper wave within the flow will aid in pushing a
boundary into parts of the area Wednesday, and will give much of
the area the `best` chances for showers and storms within this
forecast period. Beyond Wednesday, upper ridging somewhat
re establishes over the southern plains for the remainder of the
forecast period, so any locations that benefit from the slightly
cooler conditions on Wednesday will be very brief. There is a non
zero chance that over the weekend some shower/storm activity
along the northern periphery of the ridge brushes parts of far NE
OK, but will leave out any mention at this time.


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period.
Southerly winds increase by Saturday afternoon with gusts as high
as 20 kts. A weak front approaches the region late Saturday
evening and into the overnight hours with perhaps some scattered
showers along the boundary near the OK-KS border. Notable flight
impacts are not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  79  98  78 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   96  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   93  74  95  73 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   93  76  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   93  77  96  77 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  10  10
F10   93  76  97  76 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   92  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43