159
FXUS64 KTSA 141707
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Warm afternoon on tap across the forecast area. With
dewpoints in the lower 70s, and expected high temps
this afternoon, will go ahead and issue a heat advisory
for parts of NE OK until 6 pm. Current first period elements
are in line, but will update the zones to include
the heat advisory headlines.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. NPW already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the low to
mid 90s and afternoon heat indices generally 95-102F. A weak
shortwave trough will pass to the northwest of the area with a 10%
chance of a shower or thunderstorm in portions of northeast OK
and northwest AR. Sunday through Tuesday will feature more of the
same with highs in the low to mid 90s and generally humid but
rain-free conditions. The one exception may be portions of
southeast OK and west-central AR where there is a low (10-20%)
chance of a few afternoon or evening showers Monday and Tuesday.

By the middle of next week an anomalously strong upper level ridge
will shift into the northeast, but a trailing portion of the ridge
will extend southwest into our region. This will allow for some type
of tropical wave to impact southern Texas. Although we will be well
removed geographically from this, some of the moisture will move
north with PWAT values expected to rise. With the increased moisture
and a bit of upper level flow, there will be a slight (10-30%)
chance of a few showers and storms for the middle to end of next
week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates that the main factor for
whether rain occurs or not is the westward extension of the upper
level high across the eastern US, with roughly a third of
individual ensemble members showing a favorable pattern for at
least some showers in the area. High temperatures may cool
slightly with the extra moisture and clouds, but will still mostly
remain at or above 90F. It`s also worth mentioning that breezy
southerly winds will develop for this period, as a deep western
trough will encourage a stout southerly pressure gradient across
the area. EPS EFI for wind shows values of 0.7 to 0.9 across the
area, meaning unusually windy for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites
through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   69  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   71  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   71  92  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   71  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  92  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
F10   69  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23