433
FXUS64 KTSA 161709
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Developing surface low pressure to the west has tightened the pressure
gradient some across the forecast area- especially for parts of
NE OK where the more gusty conditions will persist into the afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to rival those of yesterday and are
in line with the latest trends and 12z raobs. Rest of first period
elements look good as well, therefore no update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The pattern will realign Monday through Wednesday as a powerful
upper level ridge builds across the northeast with a deep western
trough and a possibly tropical low entering into southern Texas.
With lowering upper level heights across the area, high temperatures
will slip a bit Monday and Tuesday, generally in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Due to unusually low pressure to the north, a stiff
southerly wind will develop for this period, with gusts of 25-35 mph
expected. The gusty southerly winds will continue to advect moisture
into the area, keeping dew points elevated. Any shower or
thunderstorm activity will be limited to the higher terrain during
the afternoon hours given limited forcing.

A a low with deep tropical moisture will move into Texas
Wednesday, moving northwestward but mostly staying west of the
forecast area. A small subset of guidance (20% or so) moves it
close enough to the area that a few showers or storms could pop up
Wednesday to Thursday, so steered the forecast to account for
this. The threat of storms during this period will mostly be
confined to eastern OK. Ensemble guidance favors a strong high
moving back over the area towards the end of the week, with
temperatures warming and the chance of rain mostly below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  92  75  90 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   71  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   71  89  70  87 /   0  20   0  20
BYV   72  90  71  88 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   73  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   73  91  73  89 /   0  10   0   0
F10   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  88  71  87 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23