Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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011 FXUS64 KTSA 181711 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Overall trends today suggest less cloud cover, and thus a warmer afternoon. Current temps are running at least a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, thus forecast highs appear on track at this time. No changes anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers and thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma early this morning are expected to dissipate before reaching our area today. Temperatures should be warmer today due to less cloudiness, with afternoon highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The warming trend will continue Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds overhead, with unseasonably hot afternoon high temperatures and unseasonably warm overnight lows. Afternoon heat index values will reach near 105 in some places both Thursday and Friday afternoon, so it is possible that heat headlines may be required. A few "sunrise surprise" showers and thunderstorms may develop late tonight and Thursday morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, and the CAMs suggest the potential for robust convection to develop across northeast Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon, with these storms possibly propagating south as far as southeast Oklahoma Thursday evening before dissipating. As such, have added pops for both of these time frames despite the dry NBM. Low shower and storm chances will remain possible in the northern part of the forecast area this weekend, and temperatures will lower slightly as the upper ridge over the area begins to break down. Better shower and storm chances look to occur Sunday night as a cold front sweeps across the area. There remains considerable model spread in the magnitude of the cooling behind this front for early next week, with some models...UKMET and ICON in particular...indicating a far more significant cooldown than what is shown in the current forecast. We will just have to wait and see how this all plays out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with present cu deck basically remaining scattered and rising to 4-5 thousand feet through the afternoon. A few high-based showers or even an isolated storm is possible across NE OK after 09z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 72 97 75 / 10 10 30 30 FSM 89 68 93 72 / 10 10 10 20 MLC 92 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 20 BVO 94 68 98 70 / 10 20 30 30 FYV 87 63 91 69 / 10 10 10 20 BYV 88 65 92 70 / 10 10 10 20 MKO 90 69 95 73 / 10 10 20 30 MIO 89 68 93 71 / 10 10 30 30 F10 91 70 96 73 / 10 10 20 30 HHW 91 68 95 71 / 10 10 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14