652
FXUS64 KTSA 230750
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The surface cold front has moved through the area with cool
northerly flow resulting in declining temperatures, coolest in
northeast OK. An area of widespread rain with a few embedded storms
stretches from south-east OK into west-central AR. Additional
showers and storms are also developing near the OK/KS and AR/MO
borders. The upper level trough axis is still upstream, so good
upper level divergence continues across the area. Persistent lift
will induce additional shower and thunderstorm formation in
northeast and east- central OK for several more hours. As the
trough axis approaches, precipitation will gradually become
confined to northwest and north- central AR during the afternoon,
finally moving out of the area by tonight. Additional rainfall
totals will vary, but in general the highest totals should be in
AR.

Afternoon highs are somewhat uncertain today. There is a signal in
CAM guidance to keep most of northeast OK really socked in with
clouds, only allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Lowered temperatures a bit from the NBM to account for
this. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a bit warmer, generally in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

With clouds and precipitation clearing the area, temperatures will
cool significantly into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will range
from the low 50s in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast.
Temperatures will rebound during the day Tuesday, but with
another upper level low diving into the region, any break in storm
activity will be short lived. Rain chances will increase Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning, though totals will mostly be
minimal.

There has been considerable uncertainty the last several days with
regards to the pattern during the late week period and onwards due
to large variation in how models handle this upper level low (as
well as the possible entrainment of tropical moisture). Although
the specifics are still not known, the general picture is becoming
a bit more clear. For Wednesday through Thursday the upper level
low will hang out somewhere east of the area. Some guidance such
as the latest ECMWF keeps the upper level low over AR, while other
guidance such as the GFS or CMC are a bit further east. In either
case the upper level low is expected to then retrograde westwards
towards the area Friday-Saturday bringing increased rain and
thunder chances.

Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the most likely outcome (50-
60 % chance) is for the upper level low to remain relatively
closer to the forecast area. The EPS mean shows this as a rather
anomalous pattern with unusually low surface pressure and mid
level heights for this time of year as well as anomalously strong
mid level east to northeast flow around the low pressure area.
Additionally, moisture levels will be above the 90th percentile.
This pattern would increase the probability for areas of moderate
to possibly heavy rainfall next Friday-Saturday. Pops and
forecast precipitation were increased for this time frame. With
the upper level low hanging over or near the area through next
weekend, temperatures will remain near to below normal with at
least a slight chance of rain each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Corridor of showers and storm currently aligns near the slow
moving cold front and this trend will continue into the overnight
hours with a slow south and eastward progress. Additional showers
and a few storms are expected to develop north of the front
across portions of NE OK and eventually NW AR with this precip
continuing into the day Monday. Additionally, low clouds with low
MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to spread south in wake of the
front and persist through much of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  58  78  57 /  70  10  10  40
FSM   80  63  83  61 /  70  10  10  40
MLC   75  58  85  58 /  60   0  10  50
BVO   70  52  78  52 /  70  10  20  20
FYV   76  58  78  55 /  80  20  10  30
BYV   77  59  76  55 /  90  30  10  30
MKO   73  56  79  57 /  80  10  10  40
MIO   70  56  76  53 /  80  20  10  20
F10   71  55  81  55 /  70   0  10  40
HHW   81  60  86  60 /  60  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07