862
FXUS64 KTSA 300859 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Latest surface analysis across the region indicates a subtle
frontal boundary along or just north of the OK/KS border early
this morning. Much of the convection associated with this
boundary and a weak mid-level perturbation currently remains
across southern KS and far northern OK. CAMs show this elevated
convection gradually drifting southeastward into the forecast
area over the next few hours and persisting through the morning
hours before subsiding/dissipating sometime around midday. Little
to no impacts are expected with the convection.

High pressure, currently centered over the Northern/Central
Plains, is forecast to shift slightly southward and help push the
cold front through the northern half of the forecast area this
morning, likely stalling in the vicinity or just south of I-40 by
midday or so. Biggest challenge was determining today`s
temperatures given a high model spread in guidance due to the
presence of the cold front. Will continue to lean more toward the
NBM solution, suggesting temperatures warm up into the mid-upper
80s to near 90 along and north of I-44 and into the low-mid 90s
elsewhere. Despite the front, dewpoint temperatures will remain
relatively high this afternoon, generally ranging from the mid-
upper 70s in most locations. Latest HREF data show about a 40-60%
chance of Heat Advisory criteria being met for at least a few
hours along and south of I-40. With that said, was confident
enough to go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for southeast OK and
west-central AR from noon until 7 PM this evening.

Instability will increase again by early-mid afternoon, especially
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. There should be enough
lift and instability near the boundary to produce isolated to
scattered elevated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon through the
early-mid evening hours. Overall, the thunderstorm activity this
afternoon is expected to stay sub-severe as bulk shear remains
weak and lapse rates stay below 7C/km this afternoon, though a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As surface high pressure advances eastward towards the Great
Lakes region on Monday, Sunday`s frontal boundary will lift back
northward as a warm front, with modest to strong WAA pushing into
the forecast area by Monday afternoon behind it. There could be a
few diurnally-driven isolated showers and storms that form Monday
afternoon as a result. Convection should stay very spotty and
short-lived as mid-level ridging dominates overhead. Otherwise,
oppressive heat is anticipated to return and intensify through the
first half of the week next week. Additional heat headlines will
likely be needed, especially Monday-Thursday.

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to shift over the Southeast
CONUS by Wednesday as an upper-level trough works its way over
the Northern Plains. As a result, another weak surface frontal
boundary will approach the forecast area from the north, helping
to increase rain chances across northeast OK and northwest AR
during the daytime. Still lots of uncertainty with the evolution
of the front, with consensus in models currently suggesting it
stalls just north of the area Wednesday and Thursday, then have it
finally pushing through the region on Friday. The front is
expected to bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
(20-40%) late Thursday night through Friday night as it pushes
into the area. Guidance also suggests the front brings a much
needed cool down by next weekend, dropping temps closer to
seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High based showers will likely persist for the next few hours
over much of northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas as front/outflow
boundary slowly sags south overnight. Ongoing thunderstorm activity
should mainly remain west of NE OK TAF sites before slowly dissipating.
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon
near boundary, forecast to be located along I-40 corridor, potentially
impacting KMLC/KFSM with brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  76  96  78 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   95  76  92  71 /  50  20  10   0
MLC   93  75  95  76 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   87  71  94  76 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   92  70  91  69 /  40  10  10   0
BYV   89  68  88  66 /  40  10  10   0
MKO   92  75  92  74 /  30  20  10   0
MIO   85  71  92  73 /  20  20  20   0
F10   90  74  94  74 /  40  20  10   0
HHW   94  76  93  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-065-066-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12