Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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131 FXUS64 KTSA 200511 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1211 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Isolated showers have been noted early this evening across the local region and may continue into the early morning hours. Weak boundary extending into SE KS is likely to remain north of NE OK and any associated thunderstorms are likewise not forecast into the area. Overall precip coverage along with any measurable amounts will both remain very low through the overnight hours. Another mild night expected and updated forecast will primarily adjust for observed trends. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Upper level ridging will begin expanding back westward during the day Thursday which should lead to diminishing cloud cover over the region and the beginning of a warmup heading into the weekend. A few more isolated showers still look possible across mainly the southern half of Oklahoma Thursday afternoon where deeper moisture remains in place. Have maintained PoPs for those areas tomorrow though coverage is expected to be minimal at best due to the expanding high. Much warmer temperatures are forecast from Friday through the weekend as the upper high becomes planted over the Southern Plains. Highs near 100 degrees look to be common across the region, with heat index values likely rising above that. Heat headlines could be needed at some point this weekend, especially by Sunday as moisture increases. The southern periphery of a diffuse frontal boundary could slip into northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning and bring some low chances for a few showers from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the day. This boundary is expected to wash out and shift back north of the region by Monday. Guidance continues to indicate that the upper ridge will shift further westward early next week, though differences remain in how far west within the various deterministic and ensemble model guidance. Nevertheless, some semblance of northwest flow aloft should spread over the region from early to mid next week, bringing increased chances for showers and storms to affect the area. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered clouds, mostly in the 3-6 kft layer are expected to develop tonight, persisting through the day Thursday. Scattered high clouds are also expected. Winds will be light and mostly out of the southeast. A few very isolated showers or storms could develop Thursday afternoon, but the probability of impacting a terminal is 20 percent or less. If a storm did develop near a terminal, the main impact would be from gusty outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 74 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 93 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 89 71 93 70 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 91 71 93 69 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 91 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 89 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 89 72 92 70 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 89 71 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 F10 89 71 92 69 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 89 71 91 71 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...06