893
FXUS64 KTSA 231930
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Remainder of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024


Showers continue to linger across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this afternoon as a mid-level
shortwave moves across the region. This activity is
expected to exit the area to the east this evening. A
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out during this
time.

A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy
fog possible across much of the area. The greatest concentration
of fog is expected across northwest Arkansas into southeast
Oklahoma.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy fog is forecast to persist into mid-morning Tuesday before
dissipating. Most of Tuesday is forecast to be dry with the
chances of showers/storms returning Tuesday night as the next
upperlevel shortwave dives into the Mid-Mississippi Valley while
intensifying

Shower/storm chances continue mid-week as the upper level low spins
over the Mississippi Valley. The forecast for late week into the
weekend is more complicated and is highly dependent on the interaction
of PTC 9 and the aforementioned upper level low.  As of right now,
the highest potential for showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas will come on Friday as tropical moisture
interacts with the Mississippi Valley upper level low. Locally heavy
rains will be a concern. This will be especially true across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  The chances of showers/storms decrease
Saturday into Sunday as the storm system begins to exit to the northeast.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Latest surface observations show a mixture of IFR/MVFR ceilings around
the area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
persist over the next few hours, with chances ending west-to-east
through the afternoon and into early this evening. Likewise,
ceilings should gradually lift and break apart west-to-east
later this afternoon, with prevailing VFR conditions at all OK
terminals by 00z. MVFR ceilings are expected to linger across the
NW AR terminals through at least midnight. Guidance continues to
signal light patchy fog developing early Tuesday morning,
particularly across NW AR. Cannot rule out a brief period of
reduced vsbys at the OK terminals as well, but confidence was not
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds remain
light though the period, turning more W/WNW by late morning
Tuesday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  57  80 /   0  10  20  10
FSM   64  84  61  83 /  20   0  40  10
MLC   58  84  58  83 /   0  10  50  10
BVO   53  80  52  82 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   58  78  54  79 /  30  10  20  20
BYV   59  76  55  78 /  40  10  10  20
MKO   56  79  57  80 /   0  10  30  10
MIO   56  76  53  78 /  20  10  10  10
F10   54  81  56  80 /   0  10  30  10
HHW   61  86  61  83 /   0   0  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...67