Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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976 FXUS64 KTSA 121723 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Current temperatures running between 2 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday in many areas. With mostly sunny skies, highs expected to climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this afternoon. Current forecast on track with no significant changes anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Quiet weather conditions today as sfc ridge axis gradually moves away from the region. Mostly sunny skies and high temps a few degrees warmer than Tuesday are forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper ridge continues to strengthen across the southern Plains on Thursday with temps continuing the warming trend. A stronger wave passing across the northern Plains will push a cold front southward into southern KS by Thursday evening with isolated to scattered storms likely along this boundary. Guidance continues in good agreement that these storms will struggle to make much southward progress through Friday morning but low chances may eventually be warranted for areas near the Oklahoma Kansas border. The boundary remains more defined north and east of the forecast area through Friday and there may continue to be low storm chances on the periphery of the local forecast area. Thereafter, focus will be on the wave forecast to eject across the central CONUS Saturday through early Sunday. The latest trend with this wave is slightly stronger and more southward and warrants low thunderstorm chances across NE OK as it passes. Temperatures well above normal and expected dewpoints at or above most guidance will resultant in several days of early season heat stress as wet bulb globe temps rise into the mid - upper 80s area wide. Upper ridges builds into the SE CONUS by Sunday with a fetch of tropical moisture quickly spreading northward in the region. This should allow for slightly cooler temps and isolated to scattered precip chances. The reprieve from the above normal temps will likely be short as ridging aloft again strengthens across the region by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Scattered CU expected this afternoon as strong diurnal heating continues. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Light and variable winds are forecast through tonight, becoming light from the south Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 67 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 66 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 64 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 64 91 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 67 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 66 90 69 92 / 0 0 10 10 F10 67 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 66 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12