Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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643 FXUS64 KTSA 111939 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 239 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Surface ridge axis extending from Great Lakes into OK/AR keeping relatively dry airmass over the area for now with dew points remaining in the upper 50s/low 60s. Upper wave moving across NW Texas continues to bring high clouds into southeast OK but precip will remain off to our southwest. Should see one more night of below normal low temps as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Overall conditions will be trending in the direction of summertime as upper ridge expands over the southern states and surface high moves off to the east allowing s warmer and more humid airmass to expand over the region the next few days. NBM seems under-done at this time and have trended dew point temps more toward higher CONSMOS values. Combined with daytime highs in the low/mid 90s, will begin to see Heat Index values around 100 in many areas, possibly as early as Thursday. Overall precipitation chances will remain low in this pattern, however both Thursday night and Saturday night could see at least a low chance of storms moving into northern parts of the area. Thursday night convection along a frontal boundary in the Central Plains could eventually make a run at northeast OK, but given the expanding upper ridge this appears unlikely at this time. A few storms associated with an upper wave moving out of the Rockies this weekend could also flirt with northeast OK Saturday night or Sunday morning. The ridge axis should be pushed far enough east by early next week to allow a surge of deeper Gulf moisture into the area for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Scattered mid/high clouds will persist with a few lower level CU developing this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light winds through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 89 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 65 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 61 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 58 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 60 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 88 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 62 87 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 F10 63 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 65 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...12