Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
855 FXUS64 KTSA 191138 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 638 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but most places will remain dry. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail, with afternoon highs in the 90s. Heat index values may briefly reach near 105 in a few spots this afternoon, but the coverage and duration of such values look limited enough to preclude any heat headlines at this time. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon near and east of a weak surface trough across north central Oklahoma, with these storms moving into parts of northeast Oklahoma towards the end of the day. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Storm coverage remains uncertain into the evening hours, but at least a few isolated storms are likely to continue for awhile and propagate south before dissipating by late evening. Friday looks like another unseasonably hot day, likely even hotter than today, with afternoon heat index values again near 105 in some places. Late afternoon and evening storm chances Friday remain low...below mentionable levels...but non-zero. Saturday will be another hot day, with low shower and storm chances across northern parts of the area. Changes begin to take place Sunday as an upper level storm system moves northeast into the plains allowing a cold front to approach the area from the west. Shower and storm chances will be greatest late Sunday into Sunday night as this cold front moves across our area. Much cooler weather will follow the passage of this front early next week, with below normal temperatures at least for a couple days. Low rain chances may return Tuesday night and Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the area, but confidence in precipitation during this time frame is low. Attention may also turn to the Gulf of Mexico next week for the potential for tropical cyclone development. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the majority of the TAF period for the CWA. Ongoing showers/storms should for the most part remain north of the CWA...though a slight chance continues into mid morning for KBVO. With limited coverage will keep KBVO dry for now. Greater shower/storm potentials are forecast mid afternoon into the evening hours across Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites...and will continue ongoing Prob30 groups for timing. Slight chances extend into Northwest Arkansas this evening...though with uncertainty of coverage will hold off on mentioning the Northwest Arkansas TAFs. Much of the precip should weaken late evening with scattered to broken high clouds common over the CWA tonight. Outside of any thunderstorm activity...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds through the period should become southerly for most locations with breezy conditions this afternoon. The exception being KFSM where easterly winds this morning and overnight tonight are forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 74 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 FSM 94 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 0 MLC 96 74 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 97 69 99 72 / 20 20 10 10 FYV 91 70 94 70 / 10 20 10 10 BYV 92 71 95 72 / 10 20 10 10 MKO 94 73 97 74 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 94 71 96 74 / 20 20 10 10 F10 96 73 99 74 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 95 71 98 72 / 10 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...20