287
FXUS64 KTSA 221522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Current short term forecast and discussion (below) remains valid
and on track. The main two sensible weather storylines today will
be the unseasonably warm temperatures and the breezy/gusty winds.
Regional surface observations at 10 AM were already showing
temperatures climbing into the mid-upper 80s, with heat indices
around 90 degrees, and southwest winds gusting between 20-30 mph
across northeast OK and far northwest AR. As upper-level ridging
continues to build over the Plains today, mostly sunny skies will
contribute to temperatures maxing out in the low-mid 90s, with
temperatures flirting with triple digits in portions of western
Pawnee and Osage counties. If planning to spend a prolonged period
outdoors today, dress in light-colored clothing, drink plenty of
water, and apply/re-apply sunscreen often.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a
broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern
plains today. Surface low and attendant boundary to the north
will result in a little bit stronger winds today, mainly across
parts of northeast Oklahoma. Proximity of ridge will lead to
warmer temperatures today. This, along with slightly higher
dewpoints advecting into the area will increase impacts from heat
related stress some. That said, maximum heat index values are
expected to remain below 105 this afternoon. Isolated showers and
storms along the aforementioned boundary may approach the KS/OK
and MO/AR borders late tonight, but will not include a mention
given the low coverage expected

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The heat will continue to build Sunday and into next week as the
upper ridge continues shifting to the west and centering over the
four corners region by Wednesday, thus placing the forecast area
in NW flow. An upper wave within the flow will aid in pushing a
boundary into parts of the area Wednesday, and will give much of
the area the `best` chances for showers and storms within this
forecast period. Beyond Wednesday, upper ridging somewhat
re establishes over the southern plains for the remainder of the
forecast period, so any locations that benefit from the slightly
cooler conditions on Wednesday will be very brief. There is a non
zero chance that over the weekend some shower/storm activity
along the northern periphery of the ridge brushes parts of far NE
OK, but will leave out any mention at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period
and any reduced vsbys this morning should be brief (NW AR sites).
Southerly winds increase this morning and afternoon with gusts up
to 20 kts. A weak front approaches the region late this evening
and into the overnight hours with perhaps some scattered showers
along the boundary... primarily near the OK-KS border. The front
will also provide a subtle wind shift tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  79  98  78 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   96  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   93  74  95  73 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   93  76  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   93  77  96  77 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  10  10
F10   93  76  97  76 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   92  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43