883
FXUS65 KTWC 250910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily
chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate
strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a
few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds
overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active
weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Merging outflows were able to take advantage of
remnant elevated CAPE over lower elevations from Tucson westward
over the past several hours. In addition, a convective complex
just south of the border is pushing additional debris could with
embedded showers up from the south this morning. Trends will
continue to slowly weaken through early morning hours.

A remnant MCV will drift north across the area today, with some
subsidence in it`s wake. We`ll also start to see some mid level
warming as the high center reconsolidates near the area over the
next 36 hours. With this in mind, overall we`re expecting fewer
storms around as the atmosphere recovers into mid and late
afternoon hours. We may be watching another strong complex in
northwest Mexico try to push an outflow up from the south and
southeast in the evening hours.

With the ridge strengthening, we`ll heat up a few degrees but
should have enough moisture to take the edge off and avoid any
heat headlines. As larger scale features become less favorable for
moisture import, we`re getting nice reinforcement from active
complexes sending deep outflows up from Sonora and northwest
Chihuahua. Meanwhile we`re easily maintaining dewpoints in the
60s with precipitable water values ranging from about 1.4 inches
east to 1.9 inches west. Keep an eye out for additional (but more
modest) gulf surge activity by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
SCT SHRA with ISOLD TSRA through 25/13Z. SCT TSRA will develop
again after 25/20Z. Brief MVFR conditions possible with storms.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period,
except for gusty outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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