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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
567 FXUS65 KTWC 281712 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1012 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. Storm chances increase over the weekend and early next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Once again the favorable area for thunderstorm development are areas south of Tucson today, mainly in southern Cochise county and Santa Cruz county. Based on the latest 12Z sounding, there is much more dry air aloft than the previous days, allowing for some evaporative cooling as parcels begin to rise and therefore increase the overall CAPE throughout the day. The sounding also shows a PW of 1.51 inches, so the moisture is still in place, even though it has been recycled over the past few days. The sounding also has a bit of a cap, not as bad as yesterdays, that will take some time to overcome before the storms can tap into the CAPE. The RAP model has some areas of 1500-2000 J/kg in the areas of concern today, so there is some potential for some stronger storms. The sounding also shows a bit of an inverted V shape, hinting at some wet microburst potential for some of the stronger storms, increasing the overall wind threat for today. The DCAPE in the sounding is around 1400 J/kg and the RAP keeps the higher values north and west of Tucson, but still holds on to 1000 J/kg in its forecast for 23Z. The sounding also shows storm relative motion to be relatively stationary, and thus there is some flash flood potential for any efficient rain makers or training thunderstorms over the same area. Much of southeast Arizona is under some cloud cover this morning, limiting the surface heating until this passes. CAMs continue to have storm develop starting at 1pm over the higher terrain and continuing into the evening. So all in all, storm hazards for today are the strong to severe wind from general thunderstorm outflows or microbursts, locally heavy rainfall or training storms leading to flash flooding, and potentially some small hail in the mix. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024/ && .DISCUSSION...Last nights 500 mb upper air map placed the upper high over northern Sonora with westerly flow over the area. PW values were down a smidge but still running above late June norms. For today, expect isolated to scattered showers/storms with the best chances being focused across eastern Pima county, Santa Cruz county and southern Cochise county. Brief heavy rain the main concern today with PW values around 1.5", especially along/near the Intnl border from Nogales east. This weekend, as we close out an interesting June, an increasing moist east-southeast flow aloft with high pressure to our east will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, with Sunday being the more active day. Pattern next week leading up to the 4th of July holiday will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and heavy rain main threat from storms. However, there likely will be one down day. Just can tell this far out which one. Temperatures will remain on the warm side thru the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z. Decreasing debris clouds this morning. Widely scattered to scattered -TSRA from 28/18z to 29/04z with brief MFR conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally 10 kts with the occasional gust up to 20 kts this afternoon, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through the forecast period. This will bring widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms and showers today and Saturday, mainly south and east of Tucson. Moisture will increase more through the weekend and into next week to bring higher chances and coverage for thunderstorms and showers each day. Strong erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...Based on the forecast high temperatures for Tucson over the next 3 days, June 2024 will join July 2023 & June 2013 as the only calendar months on record to record triple-digit high temperatures every day. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Tetrault Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson