512
FXUS63 KUNR 232319
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
519 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Compact upper low brings active thunderstorms, wind, and a bit
  of snow later this afternoon through early Friday
- Relatively active pattern expected through Memorial Day weekend
- Upper level ridge brings milder and drier weather mid-week next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

08z surface analysis had low over central WY, which is in
response to upper low per water vapour spinning over far southwest
MT. 35-45kt low level jet (per KUDX VAD/RAP forecast) east of
Black Hills producing modest theta-e advection over ND/eastern SD
and ACCAS/sprinkles. Effect of upper low main forecast concern in
the short term.

Today through Friday, upper low rolls through the CWA into
tonight and then lifts northeast as it opens up into the eastern
Dakotas Friday. WY surface low strengthens/moves northeast as it
pushes dryline/trough into the CWA today and then wraps a cold
front through the CWA late this afternoon/tonight. A narrow tongue
of buoyancy surges into far northern through eastern reaches of
the CWA. HREF forecasts 1-2KJ/kg SBCAPE over south-central SD by
21z with 500J/kg over far northwest SD. 25-35kt 0-6km bulk shear
increases to 30-40kt as jet streak ahead of upper low elongates
hodographs. Should see a narrow line of active convection along
dryline/trough late this afternoon with isolated severe
thunderstorms (damaging wind/large hail), especially over south-
central SD. If discrete supercells develop over south-central SD,
very large hail is possible. Strong/severe storms will quickly
move out of CWA this evening. Well-defined deformation zone
precipitation shield expected over northeast WY/northwest SD
(30-50% chance >0.25" QPF) and little precipitation over southwest
SD per dry slot. Wet bulb zero heights low enough for 1-2" of
snow (25-75th percentile) over the highest Black Hills. 3-7mb/3hr
pressure rises expected behind cold front tonight, peaking late
this evening. Good setup for strong/gusty northwest winds for the
squeeze areas of the Black Hills, so have hoisted high wind
watch/wind advisories to account. Probabilistic guidance seems low
for 50kt gusts from KRAP-KRCA region given bufkit momentum
transfer forecast, but EFI SoT painting strong wind potential over
much of western SD. Day shift can hone the wind speeds with
likely advisory expansion eastward for late tonight. Drier air
ends precipitation Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near
guidance.

Saturday, a weak disturbance brings a chance of precipitation,
especially over the south. Another upper low/trough moves through
Sunday with likely PoPs warranted given synoptic forcing/moisture
availability. Lingering precipitation early Memorial Day gives way
upper ridge for the middle of next week with drier/milder weather
foreseen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 517 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

West-southwesterly winds will shift more westerly-northwesterly
this evening as a cold front crosses the region. Expect sustained
winds of 20 to 30 kt and gusts of 40 to 45 kt possible across
much of the western SD plains and northeastern WY after 22-02z
this evening. Some gusts of up to 50 kt are possible over the
plains to the northeast of the Black Hills through the late
evening into Friday morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will occur toward central and
northwestern SD this evening with gusty, erratic winds and large
hail being the main threats.

MVFR conds associated with -RA/low stratus will move into NE WY
early this evening. MVFR conditions will continue to overspread
the area from northwest to southeast through this evening and
persist into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are forecast to
return after 12z Friday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 2 PM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012-013-026-
     078.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM MDT Friday for SDZ014-032-043.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for SDZ027-041-075-076.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MDT Friday for SDZ031-072-073.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/
     Friday for SDZ044-046-047-049-077.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...10