Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
110 FXUS65 KVEF 180941 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 241 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley today, resulting in choppy waves on area lakes. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period with high temperatures around 3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal. Temperatures will recover during the second half of the week, with normal temperatures returning tomorrow. temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...Current infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an upper-level trough moving through the Western US. The "cold front" associated with this trough can be seen sweeping through southern California and northwestern Arizona, with gusty northerly winds located behind this front. These gusty northerly winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley today, resulting in choppy waves up to 2 feet on area lakes. Outside of northerly winds, we will also see temperatures topping out around 3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal thanks to this trough and it`s associated front. Troughing will remain the dominant synoptic feature across the Western US for much of the week. However, we will see 500 mb heights gradually rise as the trough weakens, which will allow for temperatures to take off during the second half of the week with temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. A building ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will allow for modest height rises and an increase in temperatures across the Desert Southwest, despite a persistent longwave trough dominating the synoptic pattern of the western CONUS. Temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the week and through the weekend, with temperatures maxing out at around 10 degrees above seasonal averages by the end of the weekend. As such, expect desert valleys to return to the `Major` HeatRisk category on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico "Potential Tropical Depression One". This warm tropical moisture is expected to track westward across Mexico before getting wrapped up into the monsoonal high pressure (which remains situated over northern Mexico). As such, moisture will funnel up central Arizona and as far west as the Colorado River Valley, resulting in slight chances of precipitation in Mohave County each afternoon Friday through Monday. The low levels of the atmosphere remain very dry, so showers and thunderstorms that form are likely to encounter substantial evaporation before precipitation reaches the ground. The more likely scenario will be dry lightning, which could increase chances of wildfire starts in the area. Will continue to monitor this moisture flux through the week and update the forecast accordingly. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty northerly winds persist through the early morning, gradually decreasing. Direction will be generally out of the north, bumping to the northeast or northwest at times. Winds should fall to less than 10 knots by late morning. Afterwards, diurnal winds with speeds under 10 knots are anticipated for the afternoon and evening. BKN high clouds move into the area this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty northerly winds behind a frontal passage persist in the Las Vegas Valley, Owens Valley, and Colorado River Valley though the morning. Winds at KDAG will also be gusty but should maintain a westerly direction. Overall winds across the area should decrease later in the morning and transition to a diurnal pattern with speeds of less than 10 knots by the afternoon. SCT-BKN high clouds move into the area this evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stessman LONG TERM...Varian AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter