520
FXUS65 KVEF 202046
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
146 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving through southern
California will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms through tonight. Heavy rainfall is possible with
the stronger storms along with gusty winds. Drier conditions will
resume Saturday onward with a warming trend commencing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through next Friday.

Impacts in the way of locally heavy rain(flooding), gusty winds and
hail from thunderstorms associated with the slow moving upper low
will stay with us through tonight.

Upper low presently east of Los Angles will continue to slowly
trudge east through southern California into early this evening. The
low will then start to accelerate east across western Arizona late
tonight/Saturday. Several stronger cells that passed over rain
gauges have produced between 0.50"/hr to 1"/hr. On such storm did
close Highway 127 north of Baker.

Storm coverage has already started to diminish across the western
Mojave Desert, but new showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop and expand in coverage over southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona the rest of this afternoon through tonight. As for gusty
winds, HRRR has been somewhat consistent run-to-run suggesting a
period of gusty north-northeast winds (35-45 mph) impacting the Las
Vegas Valley, northern Clark and southern Nye Counties in a window
between 5 pm and 9 pm this evening.

There may be a few showers lingering in eastern Clark and southeast
Lincoln County tomorrow morning through 8 am PDT, otherwise any
shower coverage will be confined to northwest Arizona tomorrow.

Intermountain West will be under a dry northwest flow early in the
week with GEFS/EPS both showing a weak open trough dropping
southeast across Utah/Colorado. This will usher in some locally
gusty north winds Tuesday, as well as produce a slight dip in our
temperatures. The rest of the week looks dry with high pressure over
the Great Basin and Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Showers and thunderstorms will be in
the forecast through tonight as an area of low pressure moves east
across southern CA/NV. Expect mainly vicinity showers through 00z
with a general southeast to northwest movement. Winds are expected
to be easterly with speeds around 8 kts, but southeast winds around
8 knots can`t be ruled out as showers and storms develop. It is also
possible that we could see more a more variable wind direction at
times due to showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity. Storm
chances will continue after 03z, but are expected to move from a
northeast to southwest direction. Gusty and variable outflow winds
are also possible through the evening with gusts up to 25 knots are
times. Sky conditions will range from scattered to broken today with
bases AOA 8kft AGL, followed by improving skies overnight with bases
lifting to around 12kft AGL by daybreak Saturday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Low pressure moving across southern California today
and northwest Arizona overnight will bring the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.  KDAG will see the threat of showers
and storms through this afternoon before diminishing this evening.
The Colorado River TAF sites will see chances increase late this
afternoon and early evening and have included VCTS in both EED and
IFP TAFs. Conditions will improve by Saturday morning, with all but
the far eastern sections of the region seeing precipitation chances
end. Aside from gusty winds near thunderstorms, winds will be from
the east to southeast in most areas, with sustained speeds of 12
knots or less. Winds at KBIH will be primarily from the north
through the TAF period. Sky conditions will range from scattered to
broken today with bases AOA 8kft to 10kft AGL, followed by improving
skies west to east overnight with bases lifting to around 12kft AGL
by daybreak Saturday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Gorelow

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