735
FXUS63 KICT 191718
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1218 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blizzard conditions set to begin shortly across central Kansas this
  morning.

- Very strong northwest winds expected for much of the day.

- Some fire weather concerns Friday; low storm chances Saturday
  night into Sunday morning across eastern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A very powerful system is beginning to progress across the central
plains early this morning. Very strong winds up to between 60-70
mph have already been observed early this morning and are likely
to persist through much of today on the back side of a robust
surface low. Many locations along and west of the Flint Hills
will likely experience 60-65 mph wind gusts, and some locations
west of I-135 may see wind gusts in excess of 70 mph later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Timing for the strongest
winds is probably going to be a tad delayed compared to previous
forecasts with some locations across south-central Kansas and
the Flint Hills see the highest wind gusts during the afternoon
hours.

Additionally, moderate to heavy rain and snow has developed across
portions of western Kansas and is beginning to translate eastward.
Intense snowfall rates have been observed across eastern Colorado
and western Kansas, along with visibilities down to a quarter-mile.
These blizzard conditions will overspread much of central Kansas
this morning, and significant impacts to travel are very likely. As
of 3AM this morning, sections of I-70 have already been
shutdown, and additional road closures are all but certain.
Additionally, some elevated instability has been noted across
portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska as very steep
lapse rates aloft overspread much of these areas. Period of
thunderstorms or thundersnow are a distinct possibility later
this morning as a result. The southward extent of impactful
snowfall is still uncertain, but no changes to the headlines are
currently being proposed. However, we wouldn`t be surprised if
the winter weather advisory needed to be expanded southward to
include Wichita during the morning commute. This would mainly be
for possible visibility reductions and not so much for icy or
snow- covered roads as temperatures will likely remain above
freezing.

In general, snow should exit the region by early this afternoon, and
strong, potentially damaging winds will begin to subside after
sunset this evening as the surface low and associated trough quickly
exit northeastward.

While not much time this morning digging into the remainder of the
week, there`s nothing significant to impact the region after today.
Weaker shortwave troughs will pass over the central plains late this
week and this weekend which will help to keep temperatures
seasonably mild. However, Friday is still expected to be dry and
breezy. As a result, much of the area will likely see very high
grassland fire danger Friday afternoon. Additionally, sufficient
moisture is currently forecast to lift northward ahead of system
this weekend. There is a low-end potential for a few showers and
storms across eastern Kansas late Saturday into early Sunday, but any
moisture that does fall will likely not be appreciable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

MVFR ceilings will hold until about 20z at all sites then lift
to VFR ceilings. Light snow and blowing snow will diminish
around 20/21z at all sites. Vicinity showers are still possible
at all sites except RSL and GBD until around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Dangerous fire weather conditions to continue through the early
morning hours across portions of southern and southeast Kansas.
Very strong northwest winds will start to overspread the area
generally after 06z and after 09z for South Central KS. We are
still looking for max wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range with
a few higher gusts possible along and west of I-135. Before the
colder air moves-in later this morning, we are still looking at
RH values across south central KS into the Flint Hills in the
15-20% range. So very high to extreme fire danger will remain
through the early morning hours across south central and
southeast KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094.
Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047-048.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
KSZ049>053-067-068.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ071-072-095-
096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...GC/MWM
FIRE WEATHER...JC/RBL