063
FXUS63 KOAX 191642
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1142 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous blizzard conditions today for many. Travel is
  discouraged.

- Rain changing to heavy snow from northwest to southeast this
  morning. Maximum snowfall amounts of 6-12" expected along an
  axis from Onawa, IA to Tekamah to Fremont to David City.

- Peak wind gusts of 60-70 mph from the north today. Along with
  the blizzard conditions, the strong winds could damage trees
  and powerlines with scattered power outages possible.

- Temperatures after the snow will remain mild with highs in the
  40s and lower 50s on Thursday and 50s and 60s Friday into
  early next week, so expect any snow to melt quickly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Today and Tonight:

As of 3 AM, a w-e-oriented precipitation band has evolved along
a central axis from Albion to West Point to Harlan, IA, forced
by strong frontogenesis in the 850-700-mb layer. Scattered
thunderstorms exist along the southern flank of the broader
precipitation shield from Wahoo and Omaha toward Harlan, IA,
rooted within a plume of 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE. The strongest
storms will remain capable of hail up to quarter size through
about daybreak. Elsewhere, latent cooling effects have allowed
rain to change over to snow at Albion and Columbus with
thundersnow being reported at Fremont.

Latest CAM output consistently shows the evolution of an
impressive, sw-ne-oriented deformation precipitation band
across the area this morning with rain transitioning to sleet
and then over to heavy snow before ending from west to east this
afternoon into evening. The 00z HREF continues to depict
greater than 70% probabilities of 1+"/hr snow rates lasting for
several hours at many locations. Brief periods of 2"/hr rates
appear possible. The high snow rates are a function of existing
upright and slantwise instability with periods of thundersnow
and/or thundersleet possible this morning.

The models appear to have stabilized on where the axis of heaviest
snow will occur, which is quite similar to the forecast on
Tuesday afternoon. This forecast update will include slightly
higher QPF, mainly from Wahoo and Lincoln, west through Seward
and David City, which translates to higher expected snow totals
in those areas. In general, the forecast will indicate potential
amounts of 6-12" along an axis from Onawa, IA through Tekamah
to Fremont to David City with decreasing totals expected with
northwest and southeast extent from that axis.

The wind forecast will remain similar to the previous,
highlighting the potential for 60-70 mph gusts today. As we have
been messaging, this combination of heavy snow and extremely
strong winds will lead to dangerous blizzard conditions across a
good portion of our area, and any travel is discouraged. In
addition to the anticipated zero visibilities, considerable
drifting is expected, along with the potential for tree and
powerline damage, which could lead to scattered power outages.

Similar to the precipitation, the winds are expected to diminish
from west-to-east late this afternoon into tonight.


Thursday and Friday:

The midlevel flow pattern transitions to quasi-zonal on Thursday
in advance of a shortwave trough, which is forecast to move
through the northern and central Plains on Friday. In the low
levels, surface winds will switch to southwest on Thursday with
a fairly robust warm-advection pattern developing into Thursday
night. A surface front is projected to move through the area on
Friday, in tandem with the shortwave trough.

Existing snow cover will dampen the effects of the warm
advection on Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s
forecast in areas with the deepest snowpack. However, peripheral
locations will see a nice warm up with highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Friday will be warmer than Thursday with 40s expected
over the existing snow cover, and 50s elsewhere. Winds will
strengthen behind the front with west-northwesterly gusts of
30-40 mph possible during the afternoon in northeast NE. The
forecast will continue to advertise a 20-30% chance of mainly
light rain, mainly over our northern and eastern counties.


This Weekend:

The 00z global models remain in fairly good agreement in
depicting midlevel trough amplification over the north-central
U.S. during this time period. The upper-air system will be
attended by another front that is forecast to move through the
area Saturday night into Sunday morning. The models indicate the
highest QPF near the primary surface low over the northern
Plains into upper MS Valley, and ahead of a secondary frontal
wave over the Ozarks, with comparably less precipitation in our
area. This forecast update will indicate peak PoPs of 30-40%
Saturday night, decreasing to 20-30% on Sunday. Above-normal
temperatures are expected with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Early Next Week:

A broad, longer-wavelength trough is forecast to evolve east of
the Rockies with the northern and central Plains residing in
northwesterly flow aloft. The surface pattern will favor the
continuation of above-normal temperatures with highs in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A powerful storm is bringing blizzard conditions to much of
eastern Nebraska with visibility down <1/4 SM and north winds
gusting 40-60 kt. LIFR conditions are holding at KOMA and KLNK.
KOFK remains northwest of the snow band, with VFR conditions but
with fairly strong winds out of the north. Expect snow to move
out of KLNK around 21Z and KOMA around 23Z with blowing snow
continuing to reduce visibility until winds drop around 00-01Z.
Confidence is low-moderate on exactly when visibility improves
to VFR. Winds relax overnight tonight and turn more westerly
with time. Skies will also clear. Expect these conditions to
hold through the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Blizzard Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-033-
     034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088-089.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ090>093.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ012-
     016-017.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ018-
     030>032-042.
IA...Blizzard Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...McCoy