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000
FXUS63 KOAX 182319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

At 330 PM, ridging was in place over the central and northern
Plains and a shortwave trough was centered along the
Montana/Wyoming boarder. Partly cloudy skies and light winds will
prevail this evening, with the afternoon cumulus field being
replaced by higher cirrus toward sunset.

The potential for rain and thunderstorms increases from west to
east tonight/Sunday morning as the aforementioned shortwave
shifts east. Rain chances will continue into the day on Monday,
with locally heavy rainfall as the primary concern (especially
Sunday evening/night). Wetting rains are likely for all areas,
with 0.5-1.5 inches of rain expected across the region. Locally
heavier amounts (3 inches or more) are possible over southeast
Nebraska and southern Iowa, associated with an area of isentropic
enhancement, and the potential for training convection north of a
surface low tracking northeast out of Kansas. Though these areas
have been dry recently, high rain rates (potentially approaching
2 inches per hour) could lead to localized flooding. While enough
instability will be present for thunderstorms, the risk of severe
storms is low due to an unfavorable shear environment. Cooler
temperatures and mostly cloudy conditions will accompany the rain,
limiting afternoon highs to the 70`s on Monday.

Drier weather and a return to partly cloudy skies is expected
Tuesday as the trough of low pressure shifts east. Afternoon high
temperatures in the 75-80 degree range are likely.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Northwest flow aloft will settle in over the region Wednesday and
Thursday, ushering in a slow warming trend and continued dry
weather. Afternoon highs should return to the low to mid 80`s by
Thursday. The next slight chance of thunderstorms looks to be
Friday as a weak trough slides east through the Northern Plains.
Dry and warm conditions are forecast for next weekend, as a ridge
over the Western U.S. shifts east into the Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight. Clouds are
expected to increase after sunrise as a strong upper shortwave
approaches the area. This is expected to bring widespread rain to
the region with the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM...Albright
AVIATION...Kern