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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191136
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
536 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

The primary concerns in the short term are rain chances for today
and into this evening, plus temperatures through the period.

A weak shortwave continued to lift across the region early this
morning, with another starting to approach from the northwest.
That was shown in water vapor satellite imagery stretching from
the western Dakotas into northeast CO. As this moves through the
region, there should be enough moisture and lift in a narrow band
to generate isolated to widely scattered showers. Have kept
chances for measurable rain today mainly 20 to 30 percent. Amounts
of a few hundredths of an inch are possible. We will also have a
low pressure trough moving through the region, shifting winds to
the northwest. Winds tonight could become a bit gusty, but have
kept speeds mostly 10 to 20 mph.

The rest of the short term period looks mainly dry, with highs in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

In general this period should be mainly dry, at least until Monday
night. Several weak shortwaves will track eastward through the
Central Plains through Monday but at this time it does not look
like there will be deep enough moisture to cause much in the way
or rain or snow for our area. A stronger trough will start to dig
over the western US by Monday night into Tuesday, and we should
start to see increasing chances for precipitation. This is
especially true by Tuesday night into Wednesday, when we should
have some light rain and light snow. Model agreement becomes only
fair by Wednesday, and the GFS appears to be too strong (it shows
a closed low at 500 mb). Hopefully details will start to be more
clear over the next several days and model agreement will improve.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period
with a slight chance for a light rain shower in the 18-21Z time
range and some potential for MVFR cigs to build over OMA and
perhaps OFK at the end of the period. Expect LLWS to develop after
sunset with 45-50 kt winds at 2000 ft AGL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Barjenbruch