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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

A prominent upper low over UT early this morning is in the
process of emitting a vorticity lobe into WY with the latter
feature lifting into the western Dakotas by this evening. Both
perturbations will re-join in the form of a de-amplifying short-
wave trough which will translate through the mid MO Valley on
Friday. In the low levels, a lee trough will strengthen today from
the western Dakotas into central High Plains before being
overtaken by a Pacific front which is forecast to push through our
area on Friday.

The deepening lee trough will yield breezy south winds today,
namely over our western counties while a plume of mid-level clouds
approaches from the west. The clouds may temper the amount of
diabatic heating with highs this afternoon generally in the mid
60s. Tonight, increasing height falls associated with the
aforementioned short-wave trough in concert with warm advection
along a nocturnal low-level jet will support the development of
widely scattered light showers across the area. The precipitation
should move to our east by Friday morning.

On Friday, we expect a dry frontal passage with breezy southwest
winds switching to northwest behind the front. There will not be
much temperature contrast across boundary with highs in the mid to
upper 60s areawide.

Saturday, a significant short-wave trough and attendant jet streak
will progress from the MS Valley into OH Valley in tandem with a
surface cold front. We will remain on the western periphery of the
cold continental air mass spilling south through the MS Valley
with highs in the upper 40s north to upper 50s south. Winds will
be brisk from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

A mid-level ridge will persist over the Great Plains from late
this weekend through early next week with continued dry and mild
conditions. By the middle of next week, there is some signal in
model guidance that a mid-level trough will shift east of the
Rockies, supporting increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwesterly
winds will become gusty late this morning and into the evening,
especially at KOFK. There will be a brief break in stronger gusts
overnight, before increasing again Friday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...KG