Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 182314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Widespread rain showers with isolated non-severe thunderstorms
will continue across the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area well
into the evening hours as large-scale forcing for ascent
continues ahead of a minor mid-level disturbance. This has laid
out a deformation band across a good portions of the area where
light to moderate rain will continue through the evening hours.
To our south, an MCV continues to push eastward across Kansas
leaving the bulk of severe storms to our south. Most of the
lightning in our area has been confined to the southeastern third
of the CWA, likely along and south of the 850mb boundary, albeit a
weak boundary where MUCAPE is on the order of 500-1000 J/kg along
and to the south of the boundary. Relatively slow storm motion,
consistent moisture convergence along with PW`s in the 1.50-1.70"
range and already moist soil conditions are enough to keep the
flood watch in effect for portions of our southern CWA through the
evening and into the overnight. Of note, MRMS rates in parts of
our flood watch area have been around 1.5-1.9 this afternoon so
some chance for isolated flash flooding continues if deeper
convection gets going in our far southern areas. The above
mentioned mid-level wave is forecast to push east of the Missouri
River by 06z tonight but the latest runs of a few of the CAMs
continue to show a narrow line of precipitation developing to the
north of the main rainfall area, mainly along the I-80 corridor
from about 03-07z, likely along some residual boundary of sorts.

Much of the area should dry out on Wednesday with an area of surface
high pressure building overhead. Return southerly flow sets up on
Thursday with a weak northern stream shortwave pushing a weak cold
front into the area by peak heating which could spawn afternoon
convection in which we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk. Upper
level flow becomes southwesterly Thursday night into Friday with a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet sustaining overnight
convection Thursday night into Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Southwest flow aloft continues into Friday night with an even
stronger nocturnal low-level jet on the order of 45-65kts while a
fairly strong surface front slides southeast across the forecast
area.

Continued southwesterly flow aloft will send pieces of energy to the
area through the weekend with the best chance for thunderstorms
Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

VFR conditions at KOFK through the period. Rain at KLNK/KOMA until
about 02-03z, then becoming more spotty 03-06z. MVFR at KOMA/KLNK
until about 19/21z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for IAZ079-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald


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