-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
629
FXUS61 KILN 191754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures persist through the rest of the
week. Storm coverage will be more limited, but will linger the
next couple of days. The next best chance of rain will arrive on
Sunday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another hot and humid day across the region as the heat wave
continues. Heat index values will once again be near 100 and
therefore continued the heat advisory. With the heat and
humidity there will be some pop up showers and thunderstorms
that develop during the day. Generally expect more coverage
northwest of Interstate 71 and less southeast of Interstate 71.
Given the environment cannot rule out isolated strong to severe
storms with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts the primary
threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any storms that linger this evening will eventually fizzle out
with the loss of diurnal heating. Expecting a pretty quiet night
overall, with temperatures mainly in the 70s once again.

Thursday is expected to be a couple degrees warmer compared to
Wednesday given the increased insolation due to lower cloud
coverage during the daytime. Precip chances remain even lower
Thursday, but cannot rule out an isolated shower scooting across
our northern counties in central and west-central OH.

More locations will observe dewpoints in the middle to upper
60s, with the exception of our far western counties. This will
again lead to HI values struggling to surpass 100 degrees, but
have continued with a Heat Advisory mention given the
unseasonably hot air mass and prolonged heat wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridge centered over the lower Ohio Valley at the beginning of
the period will retrograde and get suppressed southward as energy
crosses the northern and Canadian Rockies.

Friday and Saturday will still be hot, and perhaps the hottest of
this heat wave. However, with dew points forecast to be in the mid
to upper 60s, the heat index is not much higher than air
temperatures. So forecast heat indices remain around 100, in the
advisory range. Went ahead and expanded the heat advisory into
Saturday as well.

Short wave will cross the northern tier on Saturday and then move
through the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, continuing eastward into
New England on Monday. This system will push a cold front southeast
across the region late Sunday into Sunday night. There will be
convection along and ahead of the front, although extent of that is
in a bit of question.

High pressure will build in Monday and pass of to the east on
Tuesday already bringing a return of southerly flow. Upper heights
will rebound, although nowhere to the extent of what is occurring
this week.

Temperatures will drop back into the 80s on Monday but return to the
lower 90s on Tuesday. However, drier air will remain in place
through this time with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cu has developed across portions of the region. Expect
additional cu development in addition to some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There will
be the potential for some fog overnight. Additional pop up
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday, however
coverage through the end of the TAF period is expected to be
too low to include at this time. Outside of thunderstorms winds
will be light and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...