Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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609 FXUS61 KILN 231801 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold today. A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on Monday, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Progressive mid level trof to track thru the northern Great Lakes today. This will drive a surface cold front - that is currently approaching extreme northwest Ohio - thru ILN/s area by early evening. Initial band of weakening convection over the Scioto River Valley - associated with 40-45kt low level jet continues to move off to the east. The environment will re-load with increased low level moisture leading to SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/KG ahead of the approaching cold front. Scattered convection will re-develop in this moderately unstable airmass in the pre-frontal environment. Deep layer shear of 20-25 kts is indicated in the 0-6km layer. With the low level jet shifting east the the flow veers some with the profile becoming more unidirectional this afternoon. DCAPE values become favorable for damaging winds with values around 1200 J/KG. The potential for severe weather will be along and southeast of I-71 between 2 PM and 8 PM - with strong to damaging winds being the main threat. Wind gusts (outside of storm activity) will be 20-25 mph today, subsiding after sunset. Highs to top out from the lower lower northwest to the upper 80s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tranquil conditions will prevail through the short term period as /much/ drier air briefly settles into the OH Vly tonight through the day Monday. This will mean slightly cooler conditions tonight (with lows generally in the lower to mid 60s) and abundant sunshine on Monday as highs top out in the mid to upper 80s. Light northerly flow will keep the dry air entrenched across the local area through Monday night, before the humidity returns rather aggressively by late Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some of the driest air of the period will be departing the region at the start of the extended period. Monday night`s low temperatures will fall to the low 60s with Tds in the upper 50s. A welcome relief compared to how it`s been feeling. However, we quickly rebound quickly rebound on Tuesday with another surge of theta-e into the region ahead of the next system... a rather potent low are of low pressure that is carving its way through Canada. Most recent run of the blend has backed off a bit the heat indices on Tuesday by about 8 to 10 degrees. We`ll see if this trend continues. Either way, should still be a warm day on Tuesday with feels-like temperatures reaching the 90s. As a cold front is dragged into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening, showers and storms will be forced out ahead of it. Right now, there is still some ambiguity as to when storms will move through (Tuesday late night? Wednesday day? Perhaps more than one round?). Some guidance still hints at a MCS blowing through the region at some point, but consistently between runs in terms of timing/location has been lacking. Either way, the area is still lit up by Colorado State machine learning Tuesday/Wednesday and given ample instability that will be in place combined with the parent low pressure moving through, would expect some type of organized convection. Would also be remiss not to note that with PWATs 2 standard deviations above normal, any storms that roll through will likely have some efficient rain rates. Any training that occurs may result in areas of localized flooding or runoff. Thursday will provide another break from the excessive heat in the post frontal air with highs in the low/mid 80s with dry weather as weak ridging and surface high pressure move into the region. By Friday, temperatures look to warm again as southerly flow returns ahead of another disturbance. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface cold front entering West Central Ohio to push southeast across the area thru early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the moderately unstable airmass ahead of this front. Some of the storms will contain strong to damaging winds before ending with the frontal passage. MVFR ceilings will remain possible until the front moves through the area. IFR vsby and ceiling restrictions will be possible with some of the stronger storms but have not mentioned conditions this low due to limited coverage. Surface high pressure to build into the area overnight into Monday offering drier VFR conditions. Southwest winds of 12-15kts, with gusts between 20-25kts to shift to the northwest at all TAF/s by 22Z. The gusts to taper off after sunset. Winds become more northerly toward daybreak on Monday at less than 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...AR